2024 Republican Primary

[DJChameleon]

If Trump makes it on the ballot. He's winning.

[Lisnaholic]

My own guess is that he'll win the GOP primary but lose the general election, like he did in 2020. For the Primary, the Republican voters have a bunch of hardcore election-deniers and Trump enablers, which is why he's so far ahead in those GOP candidate polls.

In the wider context of the general election, I think that block of enthusiasts for Trump will be watered down by the number of common sense voters. I have faith in the electorate to grasp what's on the ballot, and what a second Trump term would do to American democracy. In fact, I think the GOP does too, which is why they are, even as we speak, chipping away at the election process, at the local level, I believe. It's in expectation of being defeated at the ballot box again. (See 2020.) 

[Nimbly9]

My own guess is that he'll win the GOP primary but lose the general election, like he did in 2020. For the Primary, the Republican voters have a bunch of hardcore election-deniers and Trump enablers, which is why he's so far ahead in those GOP candidate polls.

In the wider context of the general election, I think that block of enthusiasts for Trump will be watered down by the number of common sense voters. I have faith in the electorate to grasp what's on the ballot, and what a second Trump term would do to American democracy. In fact, I think the GOP does too, which is why they are, even as we speak, chipping away at the election process, at the local level, I believe. It's in expectation of being defeated at the ballot box again. (See 2020.) 

Except we haven't had an election since the early 90's with a legitimately strong independent candidate participating. And it is looking like this is going to be a 3 way race this time around, not another greater vs lesser evil one.

Think about it. You have two of the most unpopular candidates of all time running against each other for the 2nd time in a row. If you don't think a ton of disaffected people will vote "Kennedy" on the ballot in November 2024 in the swing states when they see his name as a choice, then you are seriously underestimating the typical low information American voter.  Kennedy is still the most well known last name in all of American politics.  Even an 18 year old who is flunking out of school in California knows the name JFK from their history books.  And it has none of the nastier baggage of Clinton, Bush, etc.

Additionally, polls have been showing consistently that a ton of younger people who normally vote Democrat will choose RFK Jr. over Biden in a heartbeat out of pure spite over issues like inflation, Israel, housing costs, etc.

[DJChameleon]

My own guess is that he'll win the GOP primary but lose the general election, like he did in 2020. For the Primary, the Republican voters have a bunch of hardcore election-deniers and Trump enablers, which is why he's so far ahead in those GOP candidate polls.

In the wider context of the general election, I think that block of enthusiasts for Trump will be watered down by the number of common-sense voters. I have faith in the electorate to grasp what's on the ballot, and what a second Trump term would do to American democracy. In fact, I think the GOP does too, which is why they are, even as we speak, chipping away at the election process, at the local level, I believe. It's in expectation of being defeated at the ballot box again. (See 2020.) 

I'm essentially repeating what Nimbly is saying but Biden is a weak candidate, and the democrat vote is going to be so splintered that Trump will just slide in. The Trump cult will shine through, Biden is way too weak to repeat the narrow win he had in 2020. It wasn't like he blew Trump out of the water to begin with and now he has a track record for people to criticize him for and they will take him to task. Democrats are already planning to NOT even vote. The last time they reluctantly voted for him just as a NOT TRUMP canididate but he won't be able to win again off of that.

[Psy-Fi]

I'm essentially repeating what Nimbly is saying but Biden is a weak candidate, and the democrat vote is going to be so splintered that Trump will just slide in. The Trump cult will shine through, Biden is way too weak to repeat the narrow win he had in 2020. It wasn't like he blew Trump out of the water to begin with and now he has a track record for people to criticize him for and they will take him to task. Democrats are already planning to NOT even vote. The last time they reluctantly voted for him just as a NOT TRUMP canididate but he won't be able to win again off of that.

I agree 100%.

[SGR]

I would tend to agree with DJ and Nimbly - but that's if the election was held today. A lot can happen in a year, and a week in politics is a lifetime. Trump could get convicted. Biden could step aside for a different candidate (Kamala or Newsom, maybe). There could be some huge scandal with either Biden or Trump that sways votes. It's hard to say.

Victor Hanson had a recorded chat recently that is pretty interesting if you haven't heard it already. I think he puts the context of this election in perspective pretty well (from the viewpoint of most Republicans), even if you might not agree with everything he says. To his point, I think the Democrat establishment are very afraid of Trump, because they believe he'll go after them just as hard as they've gone after him if he gets back into office.

[Lexi Darling]

Yeah, at this point I definitely agree as well. I hang out in a lot of left-leaning spaces and the amount of infighting going on with these "Biden supports Israel so I'm not voting" people is absolutely unbelievable and IMO shameful. As someone who will be very directly harmed by a Trump victory, knowing that people on the "left" would be so quick to hand Trump the election through not voting has been extremely traumatic and sobering for me.

The online left talks big game about supporting LGBT rights and feminism, but I know from this experience that it's all a fucking load. I have no idea how people can be so irresponsible with the future of this country.

[Psy-Fi]

Biden could step aside for a different candidate (Kamala or Newsom, maybe).

Gavin Newsom sure has been spending a good amount of time positioning himself as a possible Presidential candidate. My only question at this point is will he step in and run if Biden drops out for some reason? It sure looks like that's what he's setting himself up to do.

[SGR]

Yeah, at this point I definitely agree as well. I hang out in a lot of left-leaning spaces and the amount of infighting going on with these "Biden supports Israel so I'm not voting" people is absolutely unbelievable and IMO shameful. As someone who will be very directly harmed by a Trump victory, knowing that people on the "left" would be so quick to hand Trump the election through not voting has been extremely traumatic and sobering for me.

The online left talks big game about supporting LGBT rights and feminism, but I know from this experience that it's all a fucking load. I have no idea how people can be so irresponsible with the future of this country.

I think something similar happened in 2016 with the 'Bernie or Bust' people. At the very least, the sentiment was there, and some of his supporters thought he'd been cheated out of the primary...something, something, superdelegates, bla bla bla.  Some of them even voted for Trump, many decided to abstain from voting.

There's also a strain of anti-semitism to be found on the far-left (just like the far-right) that hasn't been as visible since this Israel-Hamas conflict, and there are some pro-Israel liberals who feel a little bit betrayed or alienated by vocal Israel critics on the left, Michael Rapaport being the most recent example I can think of. For Biden and the left, the Israel-Hamas conflict seems like a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' kind of situation.

https://themessenger.com/entertainment/michael-rapaport-considering-voting-trump-x-rated-name

[SGR]

Gavin Newsom sure has been spending a good amount of time positioning himself as a possible Presidential candidate. My only question at this point is will he step in and run if Biden drops out for some reason? It sure looks like that's what he's setting himself up to do.

Yeah, he's doing everything that DeSantis was doing before DeSantis announced his candidacy. Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, talks like a duck, etc.

I think everyone knows Kamala just is not gonna work as a presidential candidate. She's not likeable, she's not charismatic, and often times lately, she comes off as being rather unintelligent. The latter most thing is what's really weird to me, because I watched her in Senate hearings in the past, and she always came off as being really incisive, really aggressive, and she'd always absolutely grill Republicans. So how she went from that to a VP who often times make less sense than Biden with her word salads is a bit of a mystery to me. My pet theory is that, after becoming VP, she's become really stressed and has turned to the bottle - a functional alcoholic in other words. If you listen to some of her interviews and how she talks, it certainly comes off as a posibility.

But as we've discussed before, I'm not sure optically how the Democrats could pass over her, a black woman who's literally next in line to the presidency if something happened to Biden, for another white guy who's just a governor.

In either case - would Kamala or Newsom really provide much more of an advantage against Trump than Biden? As jwb has said before, swapping out Biden now would make the Dems look weak and indecisive. And there's the issue of time. If the Dems actually do a switcheroo, it's going to need to be handled expertly and deftly for it to go well for them at this point.

[SGR]

One other thought I've had is that if the Democrats had managed to win 2020 with practically anyone else (besides Bernie), they'd be able to criticize and castigate Trump for being too old (and they wouldn't be wrong) to run in 2024. But since they stuck with Biden, they've now handicapped themselves by removing that arrow from their quiver. Of course, the party line was that 'Only Joe Biden can beat Trump'. I don't know if I buy that though. After the pandemic and all of Trump's scandals, and how divisive he is, could Buttigieg or Gabbard really have not had a chance at beating him?

[DJChameleon]

Yeah, at this point I definitely agree as well. I hang out in a lot of left-leaning spaces and the amount of infighting going on with these "Biden supports Israel so I'm not voting" people is absolutely unbelievable and IMO shameful. As someone who will be very directly harmed by a Trump victory, knowing that people on the "left" would be so quick to hand Trump the election through not voting has been extremely traumatic and sobering for me.

The online left talks big game about supporting LGBT rights and feminism, but I know from this experience that it's all a fucking load. I have no idea how people can be so irresponsible with the future of this country.

yeah I'm so annoyed with the tribalism behind Pro Israel vs Pro Palestine. Forcing politicians to sign on for ceasefires like that would actually do anything in the Middle East is just clown behavior at this point. I don't get why they think a politician agreeing to sign a paper would be able to make two enemies that have been fighting for decades stop their little personal war.

[Shhon]

[Lisnaholic]

Except we haven't had an election since the early 90's with a legitimately strong independent candidate participating. And it is looking like this is going to be a 3 way race this time around, not another greater vs lesser evil one.

Think about it. You have two of the most unpopular candidates of all time running against each other for the 2nd time in a row. If you don't think a ton of disaffected people will vote "Kennedy" on the ballot in November 2024 in the swing states when they see his name as a choice, then you are seriously underestimating the typical low information American voter.  Kennedy is still the most well known last name in all of American politics.  Even an 18 year old who is flunking out of school in California knows the name JFK from their history books.  And it has none of the nastier baggage of Clinton, Bush, etc.

Additionally, polls have been showing consistently that a ton of younger people who normally vote Democrat will choose RFK Jr. over Biden in a heartbeat out of pure spite over issues like inflation, Israel, housing costs, etc.

Excellent point, Nimbly, that I completely forgot about that third candidate. 
I don't know which polls are placing Kennedy high among young voters, but, remembering my own attitude as an 18-year-old, I don't think your argument, of "Look, here's an old guy whose name I've seen in history books; I'll go for him" is particularly representative of America's urban -or even rural- youth.

One other thought I've had is that if the Democrats had managed to win 2020 with practically anyone else (besides Bernie), they'd be able to criticize and castigate Trump for being too old (and they wouldn't be wrong) to run in 2024. But since they stuck with Biden, they've now handicapped themselves by removing that arrow from their quiver. Of course, the party line was that 'Only Joe Biden can beat Trump'. I don't know if I buy that though. After the pandemic and all of Trump's scandals, and how divisive he is, could Buttigieg or Gabbard really have not had a chance at beating him?

Yes, that's a good point, SGR ! Not only have they lost the whole argument that a younger guy will be more competent, they've also lost the preference of young voters who prefer any candidate who isn't about 3 generations removed from them.

[Lisnaholic]

Also, for what it's worth, I'm not convinced that the "Biden supports Israel" issue will still be around in Nov 2024. We hear a lot about how US voters are focused on "kitchen table issues": I just can't imagine people arguing about "..but remember his stance on the Middle East quagmire a year ago? I can't vote for him."