2024 Republican Primary

[Nimbly9]

My point is that there's a real possibility that Biden will lose the 40 and below vote to someone like RFK Jr.  The idea of a third party independent undermining various Democrat constituencies in a real measurable way is normally an impossible scenario as far as past elections go.  Yet here we are...and it just goes to show you how unenthusiastic people are about Biden for a 2nd term.

[jadis]

good to see you back bro

You might be right about that as well. To me it's kind of sickening the way our politicians give so much respect to Israel when they don't seem to really respect us at all.  They take our support as a given because it's always been more based on domestic sentiment especially among evangelical Christians much more than our actual strategic interests.

Yeah great talking to you, surely @Marie Monday could unban you on MB?

Israel's biggest problem domestically and internationally is that its politics is subsumed into the black hole that is King Bibi. For Americans, Israel = Bibi Netanyahu. Sleepy is an old fart so he knows better. He's a Cold War guy, so for him Israel is tied to stuff like the long fight to repeal the truly shameful Soviet-drafted UN General Assembly Resolution 3379, not to mention the 1967 and 1973 wars. And he's got enough common sense to remember that it's the nation state of the group of people persecuted the most throughout history.     

There are many indications Sleepy despises Bibi (both for humiliating Obama and for actively harming Israel). Bibi still hasn't been to the White House on his watch.

Netanyahu is a very arrogant man in addition to all his other unfortunate qualities. He thinks he understands America and Americans better than Americans do (he's American after all) but can only appeal to Republicans. His insistence on humiliating Obama cost Israel in a big way.

I think that Herzog, the figurehead president, or Lapid, the opposition leader, are more representative of Israelis' attitude to Washington and to Americans than Bibi. Seriously, before Bibi/Obama there wasn't a hint of condescension (see Clinton's heartfelt "Shalom chaver" to Rabin). 

[SGR]

Yeah great talking to you, surely @Marie Monday could unban you on MB?

Israel's biggest problem domestically and internationally is that its politics is subsumed into the black hole that is King Bibi. For Americans, Israel = Bibi Netanyahu. Sleepy is an old fart so he knows better. He's a Cold War guy, so for him Israel is tied to stuff like the long fight to repeal the truly shameful Soviet-drafted UN General Assembly Resolution 3379, not to mention the 1967 and 1973 wars. And he's got enough common sense to remember that it's the nation state of the group of people persecuted the most throughout history.     

There are many indications Sleepy despises Bibi (both for humiliating Obama and for actively harming Israel). Bibi still hasn't been to the White House on his watch.

Netanyahu is a very arrogant man in addition to all his other unfortunate qualities. He thinks he understands America and Americans better than Americans do (he's American after all) but can only appeal to Republicans. His insistence on humiliating Obama cost Israel in a big way.

I think that Herzog, the figurehead president, or Lapid, the opposition leader, are more representative of Israelis' attitude to Washington and to Americans than Bibi. Seriously, before Bibi/Obama there wasn't a hint of condescension (see Clinton's heartfelt "Shalom chaver" to Rabin). 

@jadis good to see you back! Out of curiosity, given your knowledge of Israel, which US presidential candidate (including the GOP field, and the independents) do you think would be best for Israel? In other words, which candidate's policies/policy proposals are you most confident would be favorable to Israel in a real and tangible way?

[Lisnaholic]

Polls are full of shit. I don't like them or trust them. There were polls that had Hilary winning in 2016 and look how that turned out.

^ Yeah, it's important to remember this key observation about polls: they are super-fallible, but then, other than vague feelings, they are often the most concrete things we have to go on.

With that in mind, here's a poll, just out today, from the Harvard Institue of Politics, that seems to be taking the temperature of exactly what you were mentioning, Nimbly:-

My point is that there's a real possibility that Biden will lose the 40 and below vote to someone like RFK Jr.  The idea of a third party independent undermining various Democrat constituencies in a real measurable way is normally an impossible scenario as far as past elections go.  Yet here we are...and it just goes to show you how unenthusiastic people are about Biden for a 2nd term.

The poll is among 18-29-year-olds, with Biden generally ahead - although narrowly eclipsed by "Don't Knows" in the first (totals) graph. That certainly suggests a lack of enthusiasm for Biden:-




Source: https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023

[jadis]

@jadis good to see you back! Out of curiosity, given your knowledge of Israel, which US presidential candidate (including the GOP field, and the independents) do you think would be best for Israel? In other words, which candidate's policies/policy proposals are you most confident would be favorable to Israel in a real and tangible way?

I'd say Israel needs a boring motherfucкer. A normal person schooled in the banal, tried n true US foreign policy doctrins. Israel good, Iran & Russia bad etc. Not whoever is the Tulsi Gabbard of the current campaign. No libertarian isolationists or any of that childish nonsense. Emphatically not Trump: too much of a wildcard, the opposite of a normal person, even if he's gonna take a pro-Israel tack he wil likely enable its worst and most destructive elements (i.e. the ones currently in charge) etc. Nor does Israel need some Ted Cruz type with all the evangelical nonsense.    

I prefaced all this with "I'd say" cause no one really knows. The Trump admin did achieve the Abraham Accords, the best thing that happened to Israel (to the entire region?) since the peace accord with Egypt probably. Maybe RFK Jr would turn out to be the best thing ever for Israel, though what if someone sends him some wordpress blog claiming the Mossad framed Sirhan Sirhan? Then what?

Biden and Blinken's approach is ideal: to Israel, full support. To Netanyahu, you're through. My ideal candidate is someone with Blinken's brain and the charisma to win a presidential election. It could be a Republican whose distate for populism is so profound that he even dislikes Bibi Netanyahu. But they don't make 'em like that any more, do they? These people today are called "establishment democrats"... And since the only one of those in the race is on the wrong side of 80... I don't know...

[Jwb]

Yeah great talking to you, surely @Marie Monday could unban you on MB?

Israel's biggest problem domestically and internationally is that its politics is subsumed into the black hole that is King Bibi. For Americans, Israel = Bibi Netanyahu. Sleepy is an old fart so he knows better. He's a Cold War guy, so for him Israel is tied to stuff like the long fight to repeal the truly shameful Soviet-drafted UN General Assembly Resolution 3379, not to mention the 1967 and 1973 wars. And he's got enough common sense to remember that it's the nation state of the group of people persecuted the most throughout history.     

There are many indications Sleepy despises Bibi (both for humiliating Obama and for actively harming Israel). Bibi still hasn't been to the White House on his watch.

Netanyahu is a very arrogant man in addition to all his other unfortunate qualities. He thinks he understands America and Americans better than Americans do (he's American after all) but can only appeal to Republicans. His insistence on humiliating Obama cost Israel in a big way.

I think that Herzog, the figurehead president, or Lapid, the opposition leader, are more representative of Israelis' attitude to Washington and to Americans than Bibi. Seriously, before Bibi/Obama there wasn't a hint of condescension (see Clinton's heartfelt "Shalom chaver" to Rabin). 

re: MB... my understanding is that nobody over there had that authority.  It's been suggested to me i should just make an alt account, but the website seems pretty dead to me and i kind of don't want to give them the satisfaction of banning me again, as petty as that might be. I'm a petty fuck lol.

As for Bibi...tbf he's been their leader most of my adult life and I'm 36. At this point i would say it's on Israel if he represents them to the outside world. He's almost been in power as long as fuckin Putin at this point.  Obviously people are saying that's coming to an end.  Whenever they are done getting revenge i guess.

As for the most persecuted people on earth... the idea that Israel exists as some sort of safe haven from that is pretty laughable to me at this point.  We can't really be expected to believe that Israel is perpetually in the cross hairs of genocidal terror groups and then on the other hand speak about it as if it's somehow safer than the United States or even a lot of Europe is for jews. These two ideas should cause at least a tinge of cognitive dissonance. Not to mention the fact that said safe haven has lead to the current humanitarian disaster. I could see that argument seeming persuasive right after the holocaust.  But now that we've run the experiment i think that's a losing argument.

But honestly I'm sure you know more about the internal politics than i do, but i wouldn't mind if one of our presidents was willing to treat Bibi the way he treated Obama.  I can't even hate on Bibi in that case because at least he was doing what he thought was in Israel's strategic interests. It seems our leaders are seldom willing to do the same. Instead they perpetually assume whatever is in Israels interest must also be in our interest.  Notice they don't make the same assumptions about us.  Israel is not wrong in this dynamic. The United States is.

[jadis]

re: MB... my understanding is that nobody over there had that authority.  It's been suggested to me i should just make an alt account, but the website seems pretty dead to me

C'mon man... we can revive it. You, me and the pseudo-lesbian...

But honestly I'm sure you know more about the internal politics than i do, but i wouldn't mind if one of our presidents was willing to treat Bibi the way he treated Obama.  I can't even hate on Bibi in that case because at least he was doing what he thought was in Israel's strategic interests. It seems our leaders are seldom willing to do the same. Instead they perpetually assume whatever is in Israels interest must also be in our interest.  Notice they don't make the same assumptions about us.  Israel is not wrong in this dynamic. The United States is.

What are the US interests in the region though (apart from good relations with the owners of the oil pumps, who are gravitating toward Israel anyway)? It's not a particularly straightforward question. During the Cold War it was a matter of supporting a democracy (however troubled) against the alliance between a bunch of Arab dictatorships and the Soviets. I think some of it holds surprisingly true for today, for all that changed.

As for the most persecuted people on earth... the idea that Israel exists as some sort of safe haven from that is pretty laughable to me at this point.  We can't really be expected to believe that Israel is perpetually in the cross hairs of genocidal terror groups and then on the other hand speak about it as if it's somehow safer than the United States or even a lot of Europe is for jews. These two ideas should cause at least a tinge of cognitive dissonance. Not to mention the fact that said safe haven has lead to the current humanitarian disaster. I could see that argument seeming persuasive right after the holocaust.  But now that we've run the experiment i think that's a losing argument.

Re the Holocaust, let's not forget the expulsion of some 800,000 Jews from Arab and Muslim countries in the subsequent decades.

But I agree there's a paradox here: on October 7 Israel was clearly the least safe place in the world to be a Jew; and yet a month later Jewish friends in Montreal started talking about Aliyah, (the "I'm not antisemitic, just antizionist" mobs in Montreal are so fucking bad). 
https://www.france24.com/en/video/20231116-montreal-jewish-community-in-shock-over-synagogue-firebombing-school-shootings

I don't want to say too much here but for many it's a matter of wishing to live without having to hide the signs of their Jewishness, which is becoming increasingly difficult in France especially.

The interior ministry recorded more than 1,500 incidents in the six weeks following 7 October, ranging from the desecration of cemeteries to antisemitic graffiti and banners, social media attacks, vandalism against Jewish property, threats against Jews and a handful of assaults. This is more than three times as many as during the Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation in the early 2000s – the previous high-water mark for anti-Jewish hate offences.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/02/antisemitism-jews-france-emmanuel-macron-israel-hamas-war

I think the challenge is on us to try to understand the painful nature of anti-Jewish persecution. 

Re "the experiment"... Antisemitism always morphs and adjusts. Once the Jews were hated for their religion, then for their "race" and now it's for their state (takes an idiot to think that antisemitism always comes dressed in SS uniform). We should remind ourselves it's the problem of the antisemites, not Jews.

[SGR]

The poll is among 18-29-year-olds, with Biden generally ahead - although narrowly eclipsed by "Don't Knows" in the first (totals) graph. That certainly suggests a lack of enthusiasm for Biden:-




Source: https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023

I think that lack of enthusiasm may be a big reason why Biden might lose. Trump has a very enthusiastic and loyal base that's going to vote for him regardless - Biden doesn't really have that. I think many people who voted for Biden in 2020 weren't voting for him so much as they were voting against Trump. Now that Biden's been in office for 3 years, life still sucks and hasn't gotten better for young people (I should know), I think that for many, apathy has set in a bit. Where they might've voted for Biden in 2020, they might just stay home this time.

[SGR]

If anyone wants to watch the debate tonight:

https://rumble.com/v3yn515-rnc-fourth-presidential-primary-debate.html

[SGR]

[Nimbly9]

Definitely Vivek's best debate experience of the four events.

[SGR]

Definitely Vivek's best debate experience of the four events.

He had me rolling with laughter once he showed off his legal pad. 

[degrassi.knoll]

C'mon man... we can revive it. You, me and the pseudo-lesbian...

LOL

[Lisnaholic]

I think that lack of enthusiasm may be a big reason why Biden might lose. Trump has a very enthusiastic and loyal base that's going to vote for him regardless - Biden doesn't really have that. I think many people who voted for Biden in 2020 weren't voting for him so much as they were voting against Trump. Now that Biden's been in office for 3 years, life still sucks and hasn't gotten better for young people (I should know), I think that for many, apathy has set in a bit. Where they might've voted for Biden in 2020, they might just stay home this time.

^ I'm sorry to hear your verdict on life, SGR. I hope things aren't too grim for you for too long. You're right about the dynamic of people voting Biden just to get Trump out of office in 2020, and perhaps, as you say, young people might be deciding to stay at home in 2024. That could cause a real prob for the US, which is, according to Liz Cheney, "sleepwalking into a dictatorship". 

Here's a totally biased list of Biden accomplishments, because it comes from the official White House website. Some are rather vague and most are drops-in-the-ocean stuff, so I'm sure they don't have much immediate impact on you. Even so, isn't there anything on there that makes you think, "oh, yeah. That's a good thing done." 

Spoiler

TOP ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Lowering Costs of Families' Everyday Expenses

More People Are Working Than At Any Point in American History

Making More in America

Rescued the Economy and Changed the Course of the Pandemic

Rebuilding our Infrastructure

Historic Expansion of Benefits and Services for Toxic Exposed Veterans

The First Meaningful Gun Violence Reduction Legislation in 30 Years

Protected Marriage for LGBTQI+ and Interracial Couples

Historic Confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson and Federal Judges of Diverse Backgrounds

Rallied the World to Support Ukraine in Response to Putin's Aggression

Strengthened Alliances and Partnerships to Deliver for the American People

Successful Counterterrorism Missions Against the Leaders of Al Qaeda and ISIS

Executive Orders Protecting Reproductive Rights

Historic Student Debt Relief for Middle- and Working-Class Families

Ending our Failed Approach to Marijuana

Advancing Equity and Racial Justice, Including Historic Criminal Justice Reform

Delivering on the Most Aggressive Climate and Environmental Justice Agenda in American History

More People with Health Insurance Than Ever Before
 
Source and details: https://www.whitehouse.gov/therecord/

[close]

[jadis]

https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1732585805128892673

It's one thing to say that demographics is used as a political tool (it is) and that immigration policy of a govt is open to debate (a discussion within a political community what are the condition of membership in it and at what rate should others be able to join is not racist. A political community by definition has an outside). Endorsing the explanatory logic of the most racist theory to come out of the French far right since WW2 is a different thing. This guy is a disaster.