2024 Republican Primary

[Nimbly9]

I don't know which polls are placing Kennedy high among young voters, but, remembering my own attitude as an 18-year-old, I don't think your argument, of "Look, here's an old guy whose name I've seen in history books; I'll go for him" is particularly representative of America's urban -or even rural- youth.

RFK Jr. is the only one of the three candidates who talks about making housing affordable for young people, among other things.  And all of the major polling out there does suggest he's more popular than either Trump or Biden with pretty much everyone in that 18-29 range. I have a feeling the numbers would be even higher if we had larger data subsets to look at.

RFK Jr. leads Trump, Biden among voters under 45: Poll

[Lisnaholic]

^ Thanks for those statistics, Nimbly. The guy is clearly more popular than I imagined.

[DJChameleon]

Also, for what it's worth, I'm not convinced that the "Biden supports Israel" issue will still be around in Nov 2024. We hear a lot about how US voters are focused on "kitchen table issues": I just can't imagine people arguing about "..but remember his stance on the Middle East quagmire a year ago? I can't vote for him."

I think you are underestimating how passionate people are about this Middle Eastern conflict. There is a specifically big Muslim community in Michigan which is a swing state that voted for Biden last time that isn't going to for him this time and the voting block is large enough that Trump will win Michigan because of it.

[Lisnaholic]

Yes, very possible that I'm underestimating how the present conflict in Gaza will effect US voters, DJ.
I wish Biden would dial back his all-in gung-ho support for Israel. There are surely better solutions that Israel could be employing than simply pulverising the city and its inhabitants.

[SGR]

RFK Jr. is the only one of the three candidates who talks about making housing affordable for young people, among other things.  And all of the major polling out there does suggest he's more popular than either Trump or Biden with pretty much everyone in that 18-29 range. I have a feeling the numbers would be even higher if we had larger data subsets to look at.

RFK Jr. leads Trump, Biden among voters under 45: Poll

With support like that, in that age range, you'd have to imagine he'll end up siphoning more votes from Biden than from Trump (assuming these young people answering polls actually bother to vote).

[DJChameleon]

RFK Jr. is the only one of the three candidates who talks about making housing affordable for young people, among other things.  And all of the major polling out there does suggest he's more popular than either Trump or Biden with pretty much everyone in that 18-29 range. I have a feeling the numbers would be even higher if we had larger data subsets to look at.

RFK Jr. leads Trump, Biden among voters under 45: Poll

Polls are full of shit. I don't like them or trust them. There were polls that had Hilary winning in 2016 and look how that turned out.

[Jwb]

With support like that, in that age range, you'd have to imagine he'll end up siphoning more votes from Biden than from Trump (assuming these young people answering polls actually bother to vote).

young people don't vote anyway.

The polls should definitely have Biden's team concerned, but at the same time it's too early to really put that much stock in them.  It's also worth noting that the Republicans just lost yet another election despite the polling.  At some point they're going to have to actually win an election and not just a poll.

[Jwb]

I think you are underestimating how passionate people are about this Middle Eastern conflict. There is a specifically big Muslim community in Michigan which is a swing state that voted for Biden last time that isn't going to for him this time and the voting block is large enough that Trump will win Michigan because of it.

That's true, but either way the Democrats lose on the issue of Isreal/ Palestine because they are split. So no matter which side you pick you piss a bunch of people off.

The fact is older people are more likely to support Israel and also more likely to vote.  And the status quo has been unconditional support for Israel for decades now.  It would be an inherently risky move to try to change that in the run up to your reelection.  And we can already see that Biden is not trying to take any risks at this point.

[Nimbly9]

young people don't vote anyway.

Biden won in 2020 because of younger voter turnout though.

[Jwb]

I thought he won older demos and wine moms from the suburbs.  I wouldn't be surprised if he got the young vote but turn out was high across the board and older voters have always been more prominent and catered to as such.  Obviously they skew conservative on average as well but I thought most Democrat voters were still in those older demos.

[SGR]

Biden won in 2020 because of younger voter turnout though.

I'm not sure if it was the younger vote, as much as the pandemic and the resulting ease of voting with mail-in ballots and ballot harvesting. Biden did get more votes than any president ever.

[jadis]

That's true, but either way the Democrats lose on the issue of Isreal/ Palestine because they are split. So no matter which side you pick you piss a bunch of people off.

The fact is older people are more likely to support Israel and also more likely to vote.  And the status quo has been unconditional support for Israel for decades now.  It would be an inherently risky move to try to change that in the run up to your reelection.  And we can already see that Biden is not trying to take any risks at this point.

I don't believe these are his calculations at this point. I heard Michael Oren, who knows him extremely well (Biden was his main contact when he was the Israeli envoy in Washington), talk about this on Israeli TV. Biden likes to quote his old man who used to tell him "never sacrifice yourself on a small cross". And Israel, according to Oren, is that cross on which Biden is prepared to sacrifice himself. He knows full well how unpopular his position is but he also knows that's the right thing to do.

[Lisnaholic]

I thought he won older demos and wine moms from the suburbs.  I wouldn't be surprised if he got the young vote but turn out was high across the board and older voters have always been more prominent and catered to as such.  Obviously they skew conservative on average as well but I thought most Democrat voters were still in those older demos.

Biden won in 2020 because of younger voter turnout though.

Yeah, voter turnout was higher than usual across all age groups, though the uptick was more pronounced with younger voters (bottom two lines) than older voters (top two lines).



I'm hoping younger voters will be motivated again by the abortion issue - which can be of real and immediate concern among younger adults.

[Lisnaholic]

I'm not sure if it was the younger vote, as much as the pandemic and the resulting ease of voting with mail-in ballots and ballot harvesting. Biden did get more votes than any president ever.

^ Also Known As "facilitating the application of the principle: One Man, One Vote."

[Jwb]

I don't believe these are his calculations at this point. I heard Michael Oren, who knows him extremely well (Biden was his main contact when he was the Israeli envoy in Washington), talk about this on Israeli TV. Biden likes to quote his old man who used to tell him "never sacrifice yourself on a small cross". And Israel, according to Oren, is that cross on which Biden is prepared to sacrifice himself. He knows full well how unpopular his position is but he also knows that's the right thing to do.

good to see you back bro

You might be right about that as well. To me it's kind of sickening the way our politicians give so much respect to Israel when they don't seem to really respect us at all.  They take our support as a given because it's always been more based on domestic sentiment especially among evangelical Christians much more than our actual strategic interests.