for god's sake can we please primary biden, please

[SGR]

I have a fairly centrist Uncle who voted for Trump in 2016, ended up very much disliking him and what he did (and didn't do), so he begrudingly voted for Biden in 2020, and now he's in the same position with him. He says if it's Trump and Biden again, he's not voting. He desparately wants new blood to run, someone in their 40s or 50s. I can't say I disagree with him.

[Toy Revolver]

I have a fairly centrist Uncle who voted for Trump in 2016, ended up very much disliking him and what he did (and didn't do), so he begrudingly voted for Biden in 2020, and now he's in the same position with him. He says if it's Trump and Biden again, he's not voting. He desparately wants new blood to run, someone in their 40s or 50s. I can't say I disagree with him.

do you know if he voted for obama

because if he did (and he's white) he'd probably vote for aoc

anyone who voted for trump after the 2016 election isn't really a centrist (or at least he wasn't then) sounds more like a joe six pack

[Rubber Soul]

SGR's uncle sounds pretty typical to me. He's more worried about paying the mortgage than wondering if Lulu can have an abortion. The politician who can break through by being practical (and has the charisma to go along with it) would have a great shot at winning. Who that would be, I have no idea.

[SGR]

do you know if he voted for obama

because if he did (and he's white) he'd probably vote for aoc

anyone who voted for trump after the 2016 election isn't really a centrist (or at least he wasn't then) sounds more like a joe six pack

I know he voted for Obama at least once, I don't remember which election it was though. If it was between Trump and AOC, he'd probably vote for AOC.

SGR's uncle sounds pretty typical to me. He's more worried about paying the mortgage than wondering if Lulu can have an abortion. The politician who can break through by being practical (and has the charisma to go along with it) would have a great shot at winning. Who that would be, I have no idea.

Not too far off the mark, but abortion is a bad example since he has two daughters going into college right now. So that is an issue he cares about.

RFK Jr. kinda has me interested. I don't know if he can be that guy or not.

[Trollheart]

You do know RFK Jr. consorts with Nazis? Isn't he that one? He is that one, isn't he?

[Toy Revolver]

RFK Jr. kinda has me interested. I don't know if he can be that guy or not.
 

he's a crank

wtf

[SGR]

You do know RFK Jr. consorts with Nazis? Isn't he that one? He is that one, isn't he?

From what I've heard, only the ones in Ukraine.

[SGR]

he's a crank

wtf

Because of the shit he's said about vaccines, you mean?

[Toy Revolver]

Because of the shit he's said about vaccines, you mean?

yes

[SGR]

yes

Admittedly, I didn't realize how deep he ran with that. Upon doing a little more digging, he's been on that issue longer than I thought. For some reason, I thought his misgivings about it were isolated to the COVID vaccine, but that appears to not be the case.

He'd have a difficult time answering questions about that (in any way that would make him look good or win support) in a primary or a general. And unfortunate as it might be, I think if Biden runs again (which it looks like he will), he'll get the nomination.

[Jwb]

If they nominated anyone other than the incumbent that candidate would be working at a massive disadvantage.  It's almost certainly a recipe for throwing the election.

[SGR]

If they nominated anyone other than the incumbent that candidate would be working at a massive disadvantage.  It's almost certainly a recipe for throwing the election.

Fair point. Historically, I don't think a party has ever won the general when they snubbed the incumbent president for the nomination. At the same time though, historically, there's probably never been a president as old, seemingly senile, or mealy-mouthed as Biden running for reelection (Reagan would've probably come close if he was able to run for a third term).

[Toy Revolver]

If they nominated anyone other than the incumbent that candidate would be working at a massive disadvantage.  It's almost certainly a recipe for throwing the election.

why?

[Jwb]

Fair point. Historically, I don't think a party has ever won the general when they snubbed the incumbent president for the nomination. At the same time though, historically, there's probably never been a president as old, seemingly senile, or mealy-mouthed as Biden running for reelection (Reagan would've probably come close if he was able to run for a third term).

i think the senility angle is really overplayed with biden. He's never been a particularly good speaker even when he was in his prime, and of course that is only exacerbated by old age but that was already true in 2020 when he won the first time around.  Bush jr was an even worse speaker tbh and he got his two terms even after starting an unpopular war.

It really comes down to the culture war and how mobilized each side can get their respective constituents to get out there and vote. The lines are already drawn for the most part. It's not as much about winning over independents as it is about mobilizing the base. That much was demonstrated by the last election.

[Jwb]

why?

because the incumbent advantage is one of the most valuable advantages you can be given in a presidential race,   so if you can't even capitalize on that you're in bad shape

It shows that you're clearly not happy with the president that your own party put into office,  which just basically destroys any confidence people are going to have in you getting it right on the 2nd try. It pretty much flips the default deference you would have had as the incumbent on its head.

I guess under certain extreme circumstances you could pull a move like this off but it's such a risky strategy.