2024 Republican Primary

[jimmy jazz]

I don't know much about US politics but I do know a bit about betting and odds.

The bookies have Donald Trump as the clear favourite to win the election now at 6/5.

Biden is 2/1.

I know there is a long way to go but that's a pretty big difference.

Do my American friends agree with this?

[Shhon]

I don't know much about US politics but I do know a bit about betting and odds.

The bookies have Donald Trump as the clear favourite to win the election now at 6/5.

Biden is 2/1.

I know there is a long way to go but that's a pretty big difference.

Do my American friends agree with this?

Iowa was just the first state, trump won 20 delegates. A candidate needs to get 1215 to win the nomination. So Haley and Desantis doing so well will play out in the rest of the states. Iowa just gets the hype because it's the first state to vote for the next election.

January 23 New Hampshire votes, which will give out more delegates towards that 1215 to win. So long way to go.

I think that super delegates in America can vote to deny the candidate the nomination too, if trump continues to win states and gets 1215, he may just simply be denied the nomination.

[SGR]

Iowa was just the first state, trump won 20 delegates. A candidate needs to get 1215 to win the nomination. So Haley and Desantis doing so well will play out in the rest of the states. Iowa just gets the hype because it's the first state to vote for the next election.

January 23 New Hampshire votes, which will give out more delegates towards that 1215 to win. So long way to go.

I think that super delegates in America can vote to deny the candidate the nomination too, if trump continues to win states and gets 1215, he may just simply be denied the nomination.

Trump has a commanding lead among most states against his primary opponenets. And unlike the DNC, Republicans have far fewer superdelegates, and also unlike the DNC, the superdelegates are bound to the results of their states' primaries:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/2003308/can-gop-superdelegates-stop-trump/

Barring legally taking him off the ballot, jail time, or his death, he's going to be the Republican nominee almost assuredly.

[SGR]

I thought it was up to them ultimately

It's different between Republicans and Democrats. Democrat superdelegates have the ability to vote completely autonomously from the majority vote of their state's populace (because, as we all know, Democrats care so much about democracy), unlike Republican superdelegates, who are bound to the vote of their state's populace. Democrat superdelegates also comprise about twice as much power as Republican superdelegates (15% v. 7%). Bernie Sanders himself has supported completely eliminating superdelegates. Here's a simple explanation on Quora:

The technical answer is that yes, the Republican Party does have superdelegates. However, they function differently for the GOP than Democrats. They just have way, way less power and autonomy than the superdelegates on the Democratic side.

I do not know how the Democratic Party has changed their rules from 2016, but in the Democratic Party, you're a superdelegate if you're a member of the official party apparatus. That includes all current Democratic governors and members of Congress as well as former presidents, former vice presidents, state party chairs, and that sort of thing. In the Democratic Party, superdelegates can vote for whichever candidate they wish regardless of how the state that they come from votes, and in total, superdelegates comprise about 15% of the total delegates that determine the nomination.

The GOP, however, has decided to establish fewer superdelegates than the Democrats. In the Republican Party, the only people who get superdelegate status are the three members of each state's national party. This means that in the GOP, superdelegates are only about 7% of the total number of delegates.

The more important distinction, though, is that Republican superdelegates do not have the freedom to vote for whichever candidate they please. The Republican National Committee ruled in 2015 that their superdelegates must vote for the candidate that their state voted for.

In general, superdelegates are a way for the party elite to exert additional influence over the nomination process. If voters were on the verge of nominating a candidate who the party felt didn't have a good shot at winning the general election, the superdelegates might step in and tip the scales.

The same info can also be found on Wikipedia

[SGR]

Do you think he'll start to go out and stump for Trump? If he does, I think he'll be highly effective. Vivek articulates practically the same messages as Trump, but he's much more incisive and articulate.

I guess this answers that question.

[Nimbly9]

He certainly doesn't waste any time.  He still wants to be POTUS one day.  If you can't win on your own, nab that VP slot and pick up the pieces when your nearly 80 year old running mate keels over during his 4 year term. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[SGR]

He certainly doesn't waste any time.  He still wants to be POTUS one day.  If you can't win on your own, nab that VP slot and pick up the pieces when your nearly 80 year old running mate keels over during his 4 year term. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I still don't see him as VP. But AG? Maybe. And this very quick turnaround when he previously said he was only interested in the #1 spot (president) certainly would give credence to those who said he was only looking for a position in Trump's cabinet to advance a political career. And the approach worked wonders, given Trump's absence. Since Trump wasn't on the debate stage, just go up there yourself, embarass the Republican party stooges like Trump did in 2016, say nice things about Trump and his agenda, and profit.

[Jwb]

I don't know much about US politics but I do know a bit about betting and odds.

The bookies have Donald Trump as the clear favourite to win the election now at 6/5.

Biden is 2/1.

I know there is a long way to go but that's a pretty big difference.

Do my American friends agree with this?

It maps with the general sentiment.

If I had to bet rn I would go with Trump,  but I also expect those odds to narrow when you get closer to election.

[Psy-Fi]

She's got that crazy look in her eyes.

[SGR]

She's got that crazy look in her eyes.

https://babylonbee.com/news/the-babylon-bee-endorses-nikki-haley-and-no-she-didnt-threaten-to-drone-strike-our-offices-haha

  

[Nimbly9]

Lol

[Jwb]

She's got that crazy look in her eyes.

seriously bro I think this bitch is an android. Along with Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren.  Why does

He certainly doesn't waste any time.  He still wants to be POTUS one day.  If you can't win on your own, nab that VP slot and pick up the pieces when your nearly 80 year old running mate keels over during his 4 year term. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

maybe. But if Trump wins and lives through his term,  being his VP isn't necessarily going to help Vivek in 4 years.  Just ask Mike Pence. 

Not so convinced he will be his VP anyway.  Could just end up being another Christie who thinks Trump will reward him for loyalty only to find out that you've been used.

[Jwb]

Lol

fuck this is exactly what I war thinking but couldn't put in to words

There's something about female politicians that give me serious uncanny valley vibes.

[Psy-Fi]

Elise Stefanik, GOP congresswoman rumored to be possible VP pick, to hit trail with Trump in New Hampshire

[DJChameleon]

Do you think he'll start to go out and stump for Trump? If he does, I think he'll be highly effective. Vivek articulates practically the same messages as Trump, but he's much more incisive and articulate.

No that's a bad idea. He hit up 300 spots in Iowa and Trump voters reduced him to a dirty Muslim. Trumps audience doesn't care about someone being articulate. He went hard in Iowa to walk away with 19%. He would do Trump more harm than good if he went out speaking for Trump.