2024 US Presidential Election

[SGR]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. picks Nicole Shanahan as his running mate for his independent White House bid

Damn, I was rooting for him to pick Aaron Rodgers (even though I knew it wasn't gonna happen) just for all the drama/entertainment that would inevitably ensue.

[Psy-Fi]

Damn, I was rooting for him to pick Aaron Rodgers (even though I knew it wasn't gonna happen) just for all the drama/entertainment that would inevitably ensue.

I think his choice of Nicole Shanahan has pissed off the DNC more than they already were and would've been otherwise. The Democrat establishment is only going to amp up the personal attacks against him from this point onward.

[SGR]

I think his choice of Nicole Shanahan has pissed off the DNC more than they already were and would've been otherwise. The Democrat establishment is only going to amp up the personal attacks against him from this point onward.

You'll have to fill me in here - is there something specific about Nicole Shanahan that pisses the DNC off? The only thing I really know about her is that she seems intelligent and is the ex-wife of Google founder Sergey Bryn. I do know that the DNC has been making efforts to keep RFK Jr. off the ballot to, y'know, protect democracy and all that. 

[Psy-Fi]

You'll have to fill me in here - is there something specific about Nicole Shanahan that pisses the DNC off? The only thing I really know about her is that she seems intelligent and is the ex-wife of Google founder Sergey Bryn. I do know that the DNC has been making efforts to keep RFK Jr. off the ballot to, y'know, protect democracy and all that. 

A woman, a POC, articulate, a lawyer, fabulously wealthy, and previously donated to Joe Biden's 2020 campaign but is now running against him with RFK Jr.

Looks like the perfect combination in his VP pick to piss off the DNC in the 2024 Presidential election to me.

[Psy-Fi]

Trump allies hope to raise $33 million at Florida fundraiser, seeking to narrow gap with Biden

[SGR]

Why Hasn't Biden Called Chris Christie?

[Psy-Fi]

Nicole Shanahan has been quiet since being named RFK Jr.'s running mate

[SGR]

Nicole Shanahan has been quiet since being named RFK Jr.'s running mate

Perfect, she's showcasing how capable she is for the VP job!

[Psy-Fi]

[Psy-Fi]

George Galloway MP - MOATS with Garland Nixon

[SGR]

Biden plans order to limit southern border crossings by end of month

So you're telling me that, as the election looms ever closer, Biden in fact didn't need a new border bill and more aid to Ukraine in order to enforce the law? And that he could've done this all along? Huh.

[SGR]

Biden Says His Uncle May Have Been Eaten by Cannibals

[Lisnaholic]

I can sympathize with anyone in the US being very concerned with what goes on at the southern border, and as you prob know, I like any graphic that gives an easy-to-read history of trends, so thanks for this SGR:

^ This one shows a spectacular, alarming jump the minute the Biden admin kicks in - that is, until you read the asterisk that tells us that the Biden-years figures include expulsions as well, that hadn't previously been included. Who or how was it decided to include expulsions as part of the immigration figures?! It seems to me like a decision with an ulterior motive: to muddy-up or tilt the stats in a preferred direction.
And sadly, getting to the actually stats is a pretty muddy affair already:- 

https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/breaking-down-the-immigration-figures/

What a shame there cannot be more honesty on both sides of this political issue.

Biden plans order to limit southern border crossings by end of month

So you're telling me that, as the election looms ever closer, Biden in fact didn't need a new border bill and more aid to Ukraine in order to enforce the law? And that he could've done this all along? Huh.

Yeah, both sides playing politics with these issues. As I understand it, Biden was holding out for a long-standing commitment from the Senate to help with improved border funding, but as that was never delivered (thank you, Speaker Johnson) he's gone for a short-stop fix instead. With a bit more Republican participation, there could've been a bi-partisan bill ensuring a consistent policy over various White House admins. Instead, Biden is left with just an exec order, which could be rescinded if Trump were to win the election, so back to dizzying policy changes that, I imagine (i) don't look good on the world stage and (ii) are prob inefficient and expensive in terms of implementing staffing/legal/facility policies.   

(And for anyone exasperated by the way the actual figures for "gotaways" and releases are so hazy - it hasn't been so different in the UK, which has its own fiascos dealing with border issues.) 

[Psy-Fi]

Biden Says His Uncle May Have Been Eaten by Cannibals

Pinocchio Joe tells yet another tall tale.


Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency

[SGR]

I can sympathize with anyone in the US being very concerned with what goes on at the southern border, and as you prob know, I like any graphic that gives an easy-to-read history of trends, so thanks for this SGR:

^ This one shows a spectacular, alarming jump the minute the Biden admin kicks in - that is, until you read the asterisk that tells us that the Biden-years figures include expulsions as well, that hadn't previously been included. Who or how was it decided to include expulsions as part of the immigration figures?! It seems to me like a decision with an ulterior motive: to muddy-up or tilt the stats in a preferred direction.
And sadly, getting to the actually stats is a pretty muddy affair already:- 

Good eye, Lisna! Honestly, I missed that. This graph is a YouGov/Economist graph, who I normally put a baseline level of trust in to model and contextualize things fairly and accurately. And I suppose to their credit, they did include the caveat in the asterisk, but if you don't read that, the graph looks worse than it would otherwise. Regardless, I think however you graph out border crossings/encounters, it will look much higher for Biden's admin than previous administrations - here's another graph from Statista that doesn't appear to make any caveats about previous data - whether this graph is completely reliable though, I can't say for sure. If you can find a similar graph that you think would be more accurate, I'd be happy to see it:

https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/breaking-down-the-immigration-figures/

What a shame there cannot be more honesty on both sides of this political issue.

I gave that a read, and there are some interesting nuggets in there. At the same time, I always suggest skepticism (as you had with the graph I linked) when reading statistics and percentages and using those to try and paint a clear picture (you mention later in your post about the 'haziness' of it all, which I'd agree with). Looking at the last two paragraphs of the link you provided:

Bier calculated release and removal rates for the last two years of former President Donald Trump's term and the first 26 months of Biden's, using DHS data, including the lifecycle report, ICE detention statistics and other figures published by the Republican majority on the House Judiciary Committee. Bier wrote in November that his work showed the Biden administration "has removed a higher percentage of arrested border crossers in its first two years than the Trump DHS did over its last two years. Moreover, migrants were more likely to be released after a border arrest under President Trump than under President Biden."

While the raw numbers are much higher under Biden — 5 million encounters compared with 1.4 million under Trump in those time frames — the percentages for the two administrations were similar: 47% removed under Trump and 51% under Biden. Bier's estimates are for illegal immigration between ports of entry. (As our bar graph above shows, both administrations had removal rates above 50% when Title 42 was being used to expel people.)

I have to wonder why we're looking specifically at that timeframe (last two years of Trump, first 26 months of Biden) instead of Trump's full term and Biden's term (or at least, all available data) up til now. As the article points out earlier, Trump's last year (during the pandemic) saw Title 42 being used to immediately expel border-crossers - given that, how does that affect the percentages/numbers of release/removal that are cited in the last two paragraphs quoted above? Even if the percentages cited are correct, it does concede that the raw numbers of immigrants being released are much higher under Biden. I think that cuts to the root of the concerns/fears of many Americans. It's not that Americans think the percentage of immigrants being released into the country, relative to the number encountered at the border is higher than it was under Trump or even Obama - it's that the raw number of immigrants being released into the country is much higher, which appears to be true. And all of this raises the question - why are the amount of border encounters so drastically higher than they were in the previous two administrations? Is it policy related? Or is it due to the perception that Biden is softer on immigration? What's changed between Obama/Trump and now?

Yeah, both sides playing politics with these issues. As I understand it, Biden was holding out for a long-standing commitment from the Senate to help with improved border funding, but as that was never delivered (thank you, Speaker Johnson) he's gone for a short-stop fix instead. With a bit more Republican participation, there could've been a bi-partisan bill ensuring a consistent policy over various White House admins. Instead, Biden is left with just an exec order, which could be rescinded if Trump were to win the election, so back to dizzying policy changes that, I imagine (i) don't look good on the world stage and (ii) are prob inefficient and expensive in terms of implementing staffing/legal/facility policies.   

(And for anyone exasperated by the way the actual figures for "gotaways" and releases are so hazy - it hasn't been so different in the UK, which has its own fiascos dealing with border issues.) 

I think we've already gone over this, so I won't belabor it again - but I think that bill was a crock that would have made little if any difference in what's happening. The politics over this all is ridiculous (on both sides) - it's stupid optical advantages for purposes of electioneering (Trump: "Biden's leaving the border wide open! I'll fix that on day one!", Biden: "I tried to pass the most comprehensive border bill our country's ever seen, but the Republicans wouldn't let me!"). If the southern border/CBP truly needs more funding, it should not require congressional bickering and a new bill to make it happen. If we can swiftly, and without much argument, send tens of billions to Israel, giving our own CBP peanuts in comparison should happen practically automatically, without question. If what's happening at the border is a 'crisis', as both Republicans and Democrats seem to agree it is, Biden should be issuing executive orders. On his first day in office, Biden signed executive orders to dismantle/reverse Trump's immigration policies, but now he's claiming: 'there's "no guarantee" he has the power to take action on the border without legislation from Congress'? Give me a break. He proved on day one that he could. If a president can start war without congressional approval (and they've proven they can), they can take action on our own border without congressional approval - and Biden knows this. It's a difficult situation for Biden politically, because if he does issue executive orders and we get back to the point that our border policies look much like they did under Trump, then Trump can claim he was right all along (and he won't be shy about saying it). If Biden doesn't issue the executive orders and things don't improve, then Trump will use the border issue as a political cudgel. In a political sense, it's a very difficult tightrope for Biden and Democrats to walk.

One thought I had is - I wonder if we could find an effective proxy statistic/graph for border encounters. Given my (not entirely grounded with solid evidence) belief that Democrats and Republicans (or perhaps more accurately, the unelected bureaucrats like the CIA) have an agreement with the Mexican cartels that we allow them to do business (smuggling drugs in through the border) here in exchange for them acting as a proxy for American political control in central America (at the understood expense of American lives through drug overdoses), I wondered if the rate of drug overdoses in the US might map relatively closely to border encounters. Here are two graphs going back to 2002 - and while they're not perfect matches, they're close enough that it makes me wonder - the spikes seem to match pretty closely at the least: