Global politics

[Saulaac]

Are we going on about Gordon Brown again for the umpteenth time??
Oops sorry wrong thread, please do carry on.

[Psy-Fi]

Will US-Russia ties strain Europe? | The Bottom Line

[Jwb]

Trump's actions regarding Russia and Ukraine seem bizarre. According to the Institute for the Study of War and other sources of information, things don't seem to be going well for Russia. I'd guess Putin would also fear the end of the war and the possibly resulting discontent in the Russian people when the war has resulted in few gains and a lot of damage.

Now it seems like Trump is working on giving Putin an easy "out" from his own mess? Why?

Trump campaigned on ending the war in 24 hours.  Anyone who was paying attention and who was honest about the situation knew that meant selling out Ukraine.  If we had the leverage to pressure Russia into just ending the war,  that certainly wasn't made apparent during the Biden administration. The option for sticking it to Russia was to continue to fund and arm Ukraine and bleed Russia dry in a war of attrition, and that would essentially just be a continuation of the Biden administration's policy.

So that's a no go for Trump.  First and foremost because it doesn't break from Biden in any way.  This is similar logic to why Trump pulled out of the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) in his first term. If there's a contentious policy associated with the previous administration,  Trump is already instinctively primed to break against it. 

Trump also fancies himself a master negotiator, as I'm sure we've all noticed.  So virtually every endeavor he makes into foreign policy is framed in terms of Trump trying to "get the best deal" in whatever possible situation.  This was the case with the JCPOA. It was a bad deal because Obama negotiated it. Trump would get a better deal.  It was the case with North Korea.  Although the DMZ photo opp didn't actually result in a deal,  Trump still uses his "good relationship " with Kim to brag about his diplomatic credentials and suggest that if anyone can solve any of these international disputes, it's Trump.  He's made similar comments about Viktor Orban, Xi Jinping, and of course Vladimir Putin.

His supporters latch on to this narrative of "Trump the deal maker" and reflexively defend even his most outlandish statements and policy prescriptions as "just a brilliant negotiating tactic" where Trump starts out with an outlandish maximalist demand and then through the negotiating process, they land on a more modest compromise that still benefits the position of the United States. 

Such is the excuse given for his statements on acquiring Greenland and the Panama Canal,  suggesting Canada become the 51st state,  threatening tariffs only to get very superficial concessions they can sell as a PR victory, etc.  The myth of the deal, and by extension Donald Trump as the deal maker, is much more important than the deal itself.

Obviously in the case of Ukraine/Russia, the idea that Trump is employing tough negotiating tactics would indeed seem confusing if you assume he is negotiating on behalf of Ukraine and their interests. 

In such a case,  starting with the maximalist position would be, for instance, declaring that Russia must pull out of all of its illegally occupied territory and that Ukraine would be allowed to join NATO,  possibly with US military installations on Ukrainian territory.

That would be the maximalist position that you would then have Russia try to negotiate a compromise from.  Not that I expect that would particularly work as a negotiating tactic in this case,  but that would be the Trump philosophy of negotiation if it were applied to trying to secure Ukraine's interests. Instead they are doing the exact opposite,  and telegraphing their pre emptive capitulation to the Russian position on each of these issues. 

That's because their priority isn't Ukraine,  it's the myth of the deal.  Of Donald Trump ending the war.  The guy literally wants a noble peace prize for this shit. No joke. And as I said,  they don't have the leverage to just pressure Russia to step down.  I doubt they do with Ukraine either,  truth be told,  but Trump sees them as an easier and weaker target. That much seems clear as day to me.

The only actual lingering question as to his motives is whether Putin has some other kind of leverage over Trump that we're not privy to.  But that's yet to be demonstrated, and while I don't rule it out, I actually think Trump's actions do comport with his world view if you keep in mind that the main thrust of said world view centers around the myth of Donald Trump the deal maker who is the only one who has the negotiating chops to solve xyz issue.

[Guybrush]

Thanks @Buck_Mulligan and @Jwb.

You'd think this was about USA, Ukraine and Russia alone, but ofc Europe is involved and non-US NATO countries are currently sponsoring the war effort as much as the US is. We're still on the war of attrition plan which should result in a safer Europe. It's not that I want prolonged war, but I do want an end of it on our terms as Russia has to end its war or end up depleted. I do want Putin to face consequences. My country shares a border with Russia and share Svalbard with them. And then the US, an ally, pulls this baffling shit and goes into peace talks without Europe.

It seems such a diplomatic blunder. In a matter of days, he's just obliterating relations left and right.

I'm sad to say that putting it politely, I don't think much of USA under Trump.

[Jwb]

Don't worry,  you aren't going to hurt my feelings lol.  I think you would be a fool to consider the US an actual ally at this point.  Trump only respects power. Any relationship that you manage to maintain with the US under this kind of leadership will only ever be purely transactional and based more on Trump's short term political aims than any long term strategic vision.


That said,  the one thing he did call correctly is that Europe has been slacking on their own security for some time now,  as they've been all too comfortable to exist under the American security umbrella.  That's done with now,  and the war in Ukraine does seem to have woken them up to that reality. I agree with you in the sense that it's necessary as a safeguard against Russia,  but it's uncertain that this all leads to a safer Europe. Just like a change in leadership can drastically change the extent to which you can rely on the United States,  the leadership in the various European countries is what will determine exactly how "safe" a newly militarized Europe actually is.  I wish I had more confidence in that dynamic.  But I see no silver lining to any of this.  The world is becoming more unstable seemingly everywhere you look.

[Psy-Fi]

Netanyahu says Israel won't allow Syrian forces 'south of Damascus'

[Buck_Mulligan]

Thanks @Buck_Mulligan and @Jwb.

You'd think this was about USA, Ukraine and Russia alone, but ofc Europe is involved and non-US NATO countries are currently sponsoring the war effort as much as the US is. We're still on the war of attrition plan which should result in a safer Europe. It's not that I want prolonged war, but I do want an end of it on our terms as Russia has to end its war or end up depleted. I do want Putin to face consequences. My country shares a border with Russia and share Svalbard with them. And then the US, an ally, pulls this baffling shit and goes into peace talks without Europe.

It seems such a diplomatic blunder. In a matter of days, he's just obliterating relations left and right.

I'm sad to say that putting it politely, I don't think much of USA under Trump.

Trump wants to make it about the US to satisfy his ego. He's treating it like he does everything, as if it were a New York real estate deal. He wants a deal so he can claim success, but cares not about the details of the deal or the consequences for the people who have to live with it. If he gets his deal, he'll want people to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

[Psy-Fi]

US and Ukraine agree terms on natural resources and reconstruction deal: Ukrainian official

[Saulaac]

^ He'll get the Knob-Bellend piece prize for that one.

[QuantumSync]

[QuantumSync]

Preston Stewart
Feb 26, 2025

This is a bad look and a bad move for the United States

Today we're diving into a recent US vote in the United Nations that aligned with Russia and North Korea against Ukraine and most of our allies around the world.  This appears to be setting the stage for a US-led ceasefire deal that would cede Ukrainian territory to Russia in exchange for US economic benefits with the Russian Federation.  The signal this sends to our allies is going to be hard to come back from.

[Psy-Fi]

John Mearsheimer PREDICTED How Ukraine War Would End 10 Years Ago!

[Psy-Fi]

2 college students were publicly caned for having gay sex in Indonesia's Aceh

[Psy-Fi]

Kurdish separatist leader calls on followers to disarm, potentially ending a five-decade insurgency with Turkey

[Psy-Fi]

Notorious Mexican drug lord among 29 extradited to US

Mexico has extradited 29 alleged drug cartel members to the United States – including high-profile gang leaders.

Those extradited include notorious drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero who has been wanted by the US for the murder of an American agent 40 years ago.

The move – considered to be of the biggest extraditions in Mexico's history – is seen as a major step in bilateral security relations between the two countries.

It comes after US President Donald Trump threatened earlier this year to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, accusing it of failing to tackle drug trafficking and mass migration.