Global politics

[Shhon]

[Psy-Fi]

Israel keeps bombing Lebanon, with Hezbollah and civilian deaths rising, as Netanyahu shifts tone on cease-fire

[Jwb]

Looks like the Israelis are 'going for broke' this time...


Israeli military preparing for possible Lebanon ground incursion, army chief says

It's looking that way.  One of their latest strikes reportedly targeted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, with cautious claims that he is believed to be killed.

An interesting angle to the timing here is this comes right on the heels of the Biden administration once again touting a prospective cease fire deal (this time for 21 days) that Israel is (according to DC) on board with,  only to once again be rebuked by Isreal and then act puzzled at the seeming miscommunication. How many times can we watch the same play?

"WP Artcle excerpt"

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday dismissed a U.S.-backed push for a 21-day cease-fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and vowed that fighting would continue, even as Biden administration officials complained that Israel was fully informed of the truce proposal and indicated Netanyahu had agreed to it.

After arriving in New York for a speech Friday morning to the U.N. General Assembly, the Israeli leader told reporters, "The policy is clear: We will continue striking Hezbollah with full force — we will not stop until we achieve all of our objectives." Earlier, his office called reports that Israel had eased up on fighting in Lebanon "the opposite of the truth."

Less than a day before, administration officials had described a statement, signed by the United States and major European and Middle East allies, released Wednesday night as a major development. It was accompanied by a high-level background briefing for reporters. The statement called for a temporary halt in the escalating conflict to negotiate a more permanent cease-fire.

In a sharp pushback to Netanyahu on Thursday, the Biden administration described his rejection of the temporary truce as a bait and switch.

"A lot of care and effort was put into that statement," including extensive conversations with senior Israeli officials, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. "And we wouldn't have made that statement if we didn't have reason to believe that the conversations that we were having, with the Israelis in particular, were supportive of that goal."

The statement, he said, "wasn't just drawn up in a vacuum. It was done after careful consultation, not only with the countries that signed on to it, but Israel itself. ... And we had every reason to believe that ... in the drafting of it, and in the delivery of it, that the Israelis were fully informed ... and fully aware of every word in it. And we wouldn't have done it, as I said, if we didn't believe ... that it would be received with the seriousness with which it was composed."

Asked directly if he was saying that the statement would not have been released if there had been uncertainty about Israeli's position, Kirby said, "I didn't state exactly those words, but I'm not going to disagree."

He added that U.S. officials were continuing conversations with Netanyahu and his team in New York, and would be listening carefully Friday morning to Netanyahu's U.N. address.

For the past year, as Israel has conducted its separate war against Hamas militants in Gaza, U.S. officials have frequently referred to hard-line statements Netanyahu has made in public as differing from their private conversations with him. Expressing frustration, they have described him as seeking to assuage certain members of his political coalition who have threatened to bring down his government if he does not comply with their demands.

Israel's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, said Thursday he had informed Netanyahu that if a temporary cease-fire with Hezbollah is agreed to, his party would not vote with the coalition, and if the cease-fire became permanent, then his party would withdraw from the government, threatening Netanyahu's hold on power.

But the rejection wasn't confined to small, extreme elements in Israel's governing coalition. Foreign Minister Israel Katz, a member of Netanyahu's Likud party, said in a social media post: "There will be no cease-fire in the North. We will continue to fight against Hezbollah with all our strength until victory."

[close]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/09/26/netanyahu-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire/

Funny that they said they would be listening closely to Netanyahu's UN Address. I don't think you had to listen very close to get the picture that they aren't in a "cease fire" kind of mood at the moment. But it was on the heels of this that they then carry out this  strike intended to kill the leader of Hezbollah.  The timing couldn't be more perfectly poised to drive home Netanyahu's message.  Which is that the cease fire can go to hell. The war will continue, and now we will see the opening of a second front in the North with Hezbollah, which represents a serious escalation that could see the dimensions of this war widen further still.

"NTY live update"

Israeli warplanes flattened several residential buildings just south of Beirut on Friday evening in an attempt to kill Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was convening a leadership meeting in an underground headquarters, according to five Israeli officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence reports.

The initial assessment of Israeli intelligence agencies, based on the number and the size of the bombs used and information gathered from inside the militant group, is that Mr. Nasrallah has been killed, the officials said. But they cautioned that conclusion may yet change.

A few hours later, Israel's forces launched a series of new airstrikes early Saturday on buildings in the same neighborhood, known as the Dahiya, after warning residents to flee, the military said. The strikes were intended to destroy weapons.

Killing Mr. Nasrallah would be a major escalation in Israel's rapidly expanding campaign against Hezbollah over the last two weeks, which has threatened to spiral into an all-out regional war. Fears have grown that Hezbollah's backer, Iran, might be drawn into the fight, further destabilizing the Middle East.

[close]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/27/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas

The real question is will they launch a ground invasion and subsequent occupation of southern Lebanon? The stated goal is to drive Hezbollah north of the Litani River,  which seems like it would likely require a ground force that would have to occupy the region,  and that when said force retreats again,  Hezbollah can move right back in.  So I could be missing something but right away the way they are conducting this very much reminds me of Gaza, where all the emphasis is placed on the short term goal of eradicating a threat,  while losing sight of longer term questions about what an off ramp is ever going to look like than can actually bring any kind of lasting peace or stability. All the while basically sabotaging any hope of being able to obtain any such stability through the relentless pursuit of seeking a military objective that doesn't even seem particularly attainable.

[Psy-Fi]

One of their latest strikes reportedly targeted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, with cautious claims that he is believed to be killed.

Looks like they got him...

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah killed in Israeli airstrikes on Beirut