Big Picture American Politics

[Jwb]

I don't think he is going to jail.  I didn't ask if he had plausible deniability. Do you think he was trying to steal the election? Regardless of what can be proved in court.

[Nimbly9]

I think if he could have undercut Biden and stolen the election in some way, he would have done it before January 6th. I don't think someone trying to steal an election would tell people to go peacefully protest and then scurry away to hide in the Oval Office.

This goes back to an argument I had with someone a few years ago.  Trump is either a moment-to-moment buffoon or a 4D chessmaster.  Saying he had some kind of master plan to steal an election that he coordinated is essentially admitting that Trump is actually some kind of political mastermind instead of what most people would say he actually is - a guy who doesn't read and doesn't plan and has zero critical thinking skills.

[Jwb]

Why can't you just say no? Lol. 

[Jwb]

I think if he could have undercut Biden and stolen the election in some way, he would have done it before January 6th. I don't think someone trying to steal an election would tell people to go peacefully protest and then scurry away to hide in the Oval Office.

You don't think the president would build plausible deniability into his coup attempt? He would just be out in the open about it? That seems very naive.

[Nimbly9]

You don't think the president would build plausible deniability into his coup attempt? He would just be out in the open about it? That seems very naive.

He called Kim Jong Un "Rocket Man" and incited nuclear war over Twitter and I can't think of a single instance during his four years as President where he demonstrated anything resembling subtlety.  Is it really that hard to accept that he's just an idiot?  I apply this same thought process toward Biden - that Afghanistan withdrawal was terrible because he's just an idiot.  I don't think his intent was to do a bad job just because that happened to be the outcome.

A part of me would like him to go to jail over January 6th though.  Because that opens the floodgates in the future for more politicians across the spectrum to go to jail over spreading nonsense publicly about elections.  We need to go back to a time when both parties didn't question elections that they lost just because they lost them.

[Jwb]

I don't buy that he's so dumb he doesn't understand that if he is telling people to march on the capitol and make their voices heard to stop the certification of the votes,  that adding "march peacefully" could give him some plausible deniability if things go bad.  He might seem dumb in certain ways but he's not that much of an idiot,  and regardless he was surrounded by people telling him not to pursue it,  including his VP. Instead of accepting the writing on the wall he just turned on Pence as well. In terms of a president who is trying to be dictator I really can't think of a better example in this country.

[Jwb]

Here's another question for you to tell me where your head is actually at.  Did Biden actually win in 2020 or was the election stolen?

[Nimbly9]

I don't buy that he's so dumb he doesn't understand that if he is telling people to march on the capitol and make their voices heard to stop the certification of the votes,  that adding "march peacefully" could give him some plausible deniability if things go bad.  He might seem dumb in certain ways but he's not that much of an idiot,  and regardless he was surrounded by people telling him not to pursue it,  including his VP. Instead of accepting the writing on the wall he just turned on Pence as well. In terms of a president who is trying to be dictator I really can't think of a better example in this country.

He didn't add "march peacefully" though.  It showed up pretty early in his speech.  That's why Jack Smith's indictments don't blame him for the riot and focus instead on the "fake electors" angle for most of the counts.

Here's another question for you to tell me where your head is actually at.  Did Biden actually win in 2020 or was the election stolen?

Biden definitely won.

[Jwb]

A part of me would like him to go to jail over January 6th though.  Because that opens the floodgates in the future for more politicians across the spectrum to go to jail over spreading nonsense publicly about elections.  We need to go back to a time when both parties didn't question elections that they lost just because they lost them.

I mean he's being indicted for a bunch of shit. Not just January 6th. Seems to just be a flagrant criminal from what I can tell.

But I agree in a sense the precedent we set is important.  But to be clear you are allowed to spread nonsense about the elections afterwards.  You just can't actually try to overturn the results.  And 2020 was the only time that happened.  Gore and Clinton both conceded after excercising whatever legal avenues at their disposal.  That's the way it is supposed to work.

[Jwb]

He didn't add "march peacefully" though.  It showed up pretty early in his speech.  That's why Jack Smith's indictments don't blame him for the riot and focus instead on the "fake electors" angle for most of the counts.

I understand that and I'm saying it was intentional.  To give him cover. 

Biden definitely won.

who would you vote for if it were down to Biden and Trump?

[Nimbly9]

I'm not voting if its a rematch between Trump and Biden in 2024.  I voted for Biden in 2020.

[Jwb]

So you have no preference between the two at all?

[Nimbly9]

So you have no preference between the two at all?

They're both too old and complete disappointments for different reasons.  And every viable poll that's out there demonstrates I'm not alone in that opinion.

CNN - Why Biden and Trump need each other in order to win in 2024

[Jwb]

I don't disagree with that statement,  yet I obviously do have a preference.  To me it is mind boggling to be even remotely invested in politics in this day and age and not have a clear preference between the two.  I understand that sentiment completely when it comes from your average apathetic normie, but not when it comes from someone who clearly follows politics closely.

Say what you will about Biden but it's clear as day that if he loses in 24 he will leave peacefully without any sort of coup attempts.  It's not at all clear that Trump would do the same.  If anything,  a lot of us are just waiting to see what bullshit he tries to pull off this election of it doesn't go his way.  It isn't at all clear how he will react.

And it wasn't out of the blue that he tried to steal the last election.  I sat there and watched him campaign for a year while dropping hints that the election would be rigged. That the mail in ballots would be fraudulent.  Etc etc. 

We all watched the debates with Biden and Trump where the moderator asked Trump if he would tell the Proud boys to stand down on election day,  and Trump said they should stand back and stand by.  Keeping things purposely ambiguous.  A level of nuance you seem to think he's incapable of.

So there was a long preamble to the actual events of Jan 6 where Trump laid the ground work for claiming the election was stolen so he could try his coup attempt.  It was his backup plan from the get go to contest the election and try to stay in power some way.

[Nimbly9]

I don't disagree with that statement,  yet I obviously do have a preference.  To me it is mind boggling to be even remotely invested in politics in this day and age and not have a clear preference between the two.  I understand that sentiment completely when it comes from your average apathetic normie, but not when it comes from someone who clearly follows politics closely.

I follow politics but for the most part I don't see politics as the primary driver of society in this era.  Money, technology and science are the great forces that are driving change, shifting the status quo quietly in various ways.  The sudden leaps with AI in particular, at least in my opinion, have much more immediate consequences than anything a politician will do over the next ten years.  And very soon you'll see stuff like Langchain become the foundation for AI's ability to interact with & manipulate the real world in ways people aren't even thinking about. 

But the thing is,nobody is keeping their eye on the ball.  I see it coming like a freight train, and anyone who isn't on the money-making side with AI is going to get left behind or essentially erased unless you have a job that can't be replaced by it.

As entertaining as politics are, a lot of people are going to wake up over the next few years and not recognize the ground they are standing on.  The government isn't going to be able to regulate it.  It'll be like Snow Crash with less inflation.