Big Picture American Politics

[Lisnaholic]

I'm not getting involved in any of this (way over my head) but I would just like to extend my heartfelt thanks to the three of you - Nimbly, Lisna and JWB - for providing both an interesting and entertaining way of diverting my thoughts from the darker, sadder channels they've been stuck in over the last month. You all argued your cases well and with a lot of either research or information you already had, and while I would argue with some points on this or that, all put very well and a joy to read.

Well done guys! You kind of cheered me up, but at the very least distracted me from my troubles for a while.
TH

That's really kind of you to say so Trollheart.  
I'm very pleased to hear that our debates entertained you for a while - and if you read the whole 10-page thread, you should now consider yourself up-to-date with American politics: perhaps not all the facts, but you now have at your disposal all the bigotries that each side holds against the other - and that after all is essence of political debate

[SGR]

So speaking of Big Picture American Politics, we've had some Americans die in Israel with the attack by Hamas - what's the likelihood this escalates to more American involvement (possibly against Iran)? How does our current involvement in the Ukraine war impact our involvement here, if at all? How might this affect Biden or Trump's chances in the general election?

[Lisnaholic]

These are my personal big picture guesses to your questions, SGR. They're based on my feeling that this flare-up of a long-running conflict is not going to spawn another Six Day War scenario, with Israel and other countries in open conflict. I suspect that it'll remain a two-dog fight while it lasts, but with the same grinding "proxy-war" dynamic that every conflict seems to turn into these days.

The US involvement will increase slightly, helping Israel with more words, perhaps money, but probably not much else imo.

I suppose Ukraine and Israel will start competing for US attention, though Israel is pretty good at looking after itself these days, afaik. I imagine that Israel will be looking for moral support, while Ukraine will still be asking for funding, so in that sense they won't be competing for the same thing.

How will it effect Biden or Trump in the election? My guess is that ultimately, it won't be by much. I think Americans will have other things on their minds, come election day, than one item of foreign policy that's happening now, but will probably be forgotten by election day. 

[Nimbly9]

RFK Jr. announced his independent 2024 run today. Gonna shake things up in a very interesting way.

[SGR]

RFK Jr. announced his independent 2024 run today. Gonna shake things up in a very interesting way.

An interesting question is who will he siphon more votes from, Trump or Biden?

[SGR]

These are my personal big picture guesses to your questions, SGR. They're based on my feeling that this flare-up of a long-running conflict is not going to spawn another Six Day War scenario, with Israel and other countries in open conflict. I suspect that it'll remain a two-dog fight while it lasts, but with the same grinding "proxy-war" dynamic that every conflict seems to turn into these days.

The US involvement will increase slightly, helping Israel with more words, perhaps money, but probably not much else imo.

I suppose Ukraine and Israel will start competing for US attention, though Israel is pretty good at looking after itself these days, afaik. I imagine that Israel will be looking for moral support, while Ukraine will still be asking for funding, so in that sense they won't be competing for the same thing.

How will it effect Biden or Trump in the election? My guess is that ultimately, it won't be by much. I think Americans will have other things on their minds, come election day, than one item of foreign policy that's happening now, but will probably be forgotten by election day. 

Interesting thoughts Lisna - I haven't settled in my mind how I think it will play out, but it sounds like you mostly have. How long do you think this Israeli conflict will drag out? I remember thinking that the Ukraine conflict would be over in a matter of months at most but was proven completely wrong. I'm assuming you don't think it will drag that long if you don't think it'll affect the general elections in the US.

[Jwb]

The Ukraine conflict has gone on for longer than expected because people expected Russia to have a relatively quick conventional war victory which would then be followed by a potentially extended occupation,  similar to what we saw in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States.


Instead they have simply failed to take over the country even in the conventional sense, so it seems the initial projections either over estimated Russian military power or underestimated the potency of a Ukrainian resistance being supplemented with western resources and funding.  Or possibly both.


With regard to Israel,  they aren't being invaded by a former superpower.  They've been invaded by the terrorists thar have risen to power in a region which Israel has been systemically oppressing for the sake of national security.  It's not even a question whether Israel can defend themselves against Hamas.

If it did somehow escalate into direct conflict between Israel and Iran then sure, we would be talking about a very different scenario.  But I don't think that seems likely.  Israel is going to likely just try to purge Hamas from Gaza. I've already heard the proposed idea is to somehow put the PLO back in power.

[tristan_geoff]

The Ukraine conflict has gone on for longer than expected because people expected Russia to have a relatively quick conventional war victory which would then be followed by a potentially extended occupation,  similar to what we saw in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States.


Instead they have simply failed to take over the country even in the conventional sense, so it seems the initial projections either over estimated Russian military power or underestimated the potency of a Ukrainian resistance being supplemented with western resources and funding.  Or possibly both.


With regard to Israel,  they aren't being invaded by a former superpower.  They've been invaded by the terrorists thar have risen to power in a region which Israel has been systemically oppressing for the sake of national security.  It's not even a question whether Israel can defend themselves against Hamas.

If it did somehow escalate into direct conflict between Israel and Iran then sure, we would be talking about a very different scenario.  But I don't think that seems likely.  Israel is going to likely just try to purge Hamas from Gaza. I've already heard the proposed idea is to somehow put the PLO back in power.

wrong!!  not American.  wrong thread.  change thread.

[Lisnaholic]

Interesting thoughts Lisna - I haven't settled in my mind how I think it will play out, but it sounds like you mostly have. How long do you think this Israeli conflict will drag out? I remember thinking that the Ukraine conflict would be over in a matter of months at most but was proven completely wrong. I'm assuming you don't think it will drag that long if you don't think it'll affect the general elections in the US.

Thanks, SGR. It was your questions that prompted me to work out my thoughts, so thanks for that too. Mind you, I could easily be proved wrong as well, which is why my post is slathered with supposes, imos, I thinks and maybes.

As for duration, my guess is that Israel is going to stomp on Gaza both hard and fast, so today's violence will be over way before the US election.  Biden has made clear which side he's on (=Israel), but how about Trump ? Has he given an opinion yet? His admin did Israel a solid in moving, what was it? The capital, the embassy to Jerusalem. Does that mean that the GOP will be taking the uncomfortable position of agreeing with Biden ?! 

More likely scenario, imo:  Hostage negotiation stuff will go on for a long time, and at each stage the GOP will be accusing Biden of doing too much/too little, too fast/too slow, etc. That's the luck of being the opposition party: lots of chances to criticize without having to reveal that your own approach is no better.

[DJChameleon]

This might sound heartless, but why are we supposed to care about Isreal and Palenstine conflict this time? I'm not picking a side and posting a little square on social media to say I support one side or the other. They have been in conflict with each other for decades now? What's different?

Is it the amount of people that have died in one attack?

I heard a random comment with someone saying that this is Isreal's 9/11 and I rolled my eyes so hard at that but are they accurate? I don't know I haven't done a deep dive into this situation at all.

[SGR]

I heard a random comment with someone saying that this is Isreal's 9/11 and I rolled my eyes so hard at that but are they accurate? I don't know I haven't done a deep dive into this situation at all.

It might be 'Israel's 9/11' in the sense that this widely publicized and very blatant terror attack will give Israel the international blessing or support (at least for a time) to 'take care of business' in the region, so to speak, whereas before, if they tried the same approach, they'd be met with a very large amount of scrutiny and criticism.

Per the 'why are we supposed to care' thing - I suppose it's because Israel is an important geopolitical ally of ours in the middle east (a region full of our enemies), much more so of an ally than Ukraine is (who happens to be at war with a big geopolitical rival of ours, Russia). But to your point, Muslims and Jews have been at war with each other for time immemorial. But this event, in scale, dwarfs the usual sporadic stories of a bomb going off that killed 5 people (which would probably be a headline for a day, if it was lucky).

It's hard to believe that Mossad, one of the premiere intelligence agencies of the world, was not wise to the plans of Hamas though.

[Psy-Fi]

It might be 'Israel's 9/11' in the sense that this widely publicized and very blatant terror attack will give Israel the international blessing or support (at least for a time) to 'take care of business' in the region, so to speak, whereas before, if they tried the same approach, they'd be met with a very large amount of scrutiny and criticism.

Per the 'why are we supposed to care' thing - I suppose it's because Israel is an important geopolitical ally of ours in the middle east (a region full of our enemies), much more so of an ally than Ukraine is (who happens to be at war with a big geopolitical rival of ours, Russia). But to your point, Muslims and Jews have been at war with each other for time immemorial. But this event, in scale, dwarfs the usual sporadic stories of a bomb going off that killed 5 people (which would probably be a headline for a day, if it was lucky).

It's hard to believe that Mossad, one of the premiere intelligence agencies of the world, was not wise to the plans of Hamas though.

Supposedly, Hamas might have taken some Americans hostage during the attack, so that complicates things for the U.S. government and the U.S. military involvement.

[Lisnaholic]

Yep, we are all the time confronted with death going on somewhere in the world, so DJ, and Roger Waters, pose a valid question:

"What does it mean,
This tear-jerking scene
Beamed into my room?"

[jimmy jazz]

This might sound heartless, but why are we supposed to care about Isreal and Palenstine conflict this time? I'm not picking a side and posting a little square on social media to say I support one side or the other. They have been in conflict with each other for decades now? What's different?

Is it the amount of people that have died in one attack?

I heard a random comment with someone saying that this is Isreal's 9/11 and I rolled my eyes so hard at that but are they accurate? I don't know I haven't done a deep dive into this situation at all.

Yes the scale of the attack.

Also yes there are far too many armchair activists sticking their noses into this conflict and supporting their 'side' more vigorously than I support my football team. Share your condolences and sympathies fine but stop attacking the other side when you live in London. This is for the people there to sort out.

Its a joke.

[Psy-Fi]

Yes the scale of the attack.

Also yes there are far too many armchair activists sticking their noses into this conflict and supporting their 'side' more vigorously than I support my football team. Share your condolences and sympathies fine but stop attacking the other side when you live in London. This is for the people there to sort out.

Its a joke.

The sporting-event/team-support mentality towards this in the U.S. is about as wretched as it gets.