2024 Republican Primary

[Psy-Fi]

Not magacoin?

You are correct! That was a typo on my end.

[grindy]

You are correct! That was a typo on my end.

Lol, I was half joking, never heard about this.

[SGR]

This poll was about the general, not the primary.

Election 2024: Trump Opens 10-Point Lead

[Lisnaholic]

^ I find that some of these poll results depress me more than they should, given that I'm watching US politics from the outside and it has no real bearing on my life. Even so:-

Before Trump went sailing down that famous escalator, he was already know to be a conman with several scams exposed: Trump university being the one I remember. Despite that record, he was elected Pres, and (although apologists predicted otherwise, with all that talk of "guardrails", and "growing into the office") didn't significantly change.
Since then he has pushed through the judges that have wrought the post-Roe-vs-Wade chaos now afflicting the US, with women being forced to carry non-viable fetuses to term. He is being indicted under 91 charges, has been found guilty of sexual assault, and of inciting an insurrection. The completely illegal anti-democratic fake electors scheme is now catching up with the GOP at multiple levels; most of the evidence is already in the public domain, although the courts have taken years to catch up with the crimes.

That's what's depressing to me when I see Trump ahead in the polls: that so many poll-responders say that they'd like more of the same: more lies, more nepotism, more corruption of the democratic process, please! 
 

[Nimbly9]

No, they just want a lower cost of living and a President that doesn't lie to black people on the campaign trail that Thomas Edison didn't invent the lightbulb (and yes, Biden did do that). Also, seems silly to talk about nepotism when that's a built-in feature of basically every administration we've had since the early 1800's.  That problem doesn't go away by voting blue. 

At least when you vote red there's a chance you'll pay lower taxes next year, and to most people that's the main thing they think about when it comes time to cast a vote except in times of complete crisis (like being locked down by Covid-19).  The presidential election is always a referendum on the guy currently in power.  Saying the other guy is a threat to democracy only works on a very tiny % of people who don't have any actual opinions. They'll read a CNN headline and then go back to doing whatever it is they do during the day.

Democracy only matters when people feel like they have actual choices.  Trump leading Biden in all these major polls despite a ton of voters not liking either of them is a massive warning sign.  The death grip that the two major parties have on the electoral process in the U.S. is a legitimate problem that dwarfs practically everything else.

[Lisnaholic]

Picking out one lie doesn't give much of an overview, does it? Here's a graph I just found from Forbes:-



That teaches me that Biden's record is WAY worse than I imagined: I assumed he was much more Obama Style.

As for your nepotism comment, I'm not really buying that until you remind me which of Obama's and Biden's children and in-laws were given the kind of access and power that Ivanka and Jared enjoyed in the White House.

"they just want a lower cost of living". Well, I have some news: prices never really go backwards for long. I also would like to go back to the time when a pint of beer in the UK cost one pound. Today's price is about five pounds I think, but I'm sensible enough not to blame that on today's Prime Minister.

I always like a graph to illustrate a point, because they have so much info in them. So here's one about the price of gasoline:-

 

Nothing here spells out that Trump can deliver on any Cost of Living promise, any more than he delivered on his "Mexicans will pay for the Wall" promise.

[Lisnaholic]

Democracy only matters when people feel like they have actual choices.  Trump leading Biden in all these major polls despite a ton of voters not liking either of them is a massive warning sign.  The death grip that the two major parties have on the electoral process in the U.S. is a legitimate problem that dwarfs practically everything else.

I think I must be in an argumentative mood, Nimbly, because I'm not sure I agree with this either. In the US, voters have always had a choice, even if it feels limited at times. AFAIK, usually their choices are Democrat, Republican or Other.
If there is "a legitimate problem that dwarfs practically everything else", it's not the dominance of the two major parties. A far bigger problem is this:-

Trump and the Republican party have demonstrated their contempt for the peaceful transition of power, and also for the right of every vote to count. Without those two processes being respected and protected, democracy dies, or becomes the sham that you can see in Russia and elsewhere. Between the 2020 election and Jan 6 Trump and the GOP made it clear that they didn't respect either of those processes, and if they are re-elected, we can assume that they will continue as they did before: substituting Fake Electors for the real ones, negating people's votes and refusing to leave office. It'll only take one more Trump victory for democracy to disappear from American politics, and that's when the US voter will understand the difference between "feel they don't have a choice" and actually not having a choice.

To quote Liz Cheney again, "America is sleepwalking towards an autocracy". Wake up while you still can, Nimbly

[SGR]

Lisna, you realize that Americans on either side of the political aisle don't like Liz Cheney, right? 

She's out and about talking to media pundits to promote her new book.

[Nimbly9]

I think I must be in an argumentative mood, Nimbly, because I'm not sure I agree with this either. In the US, voters have always had a choice, even if it feels limited at times. AFAIK, usually their choices are Democrat, Republican or Other.
If there is "a legitimate problem that dwarfs practically everything else", it's not the dominance of the two major parties. A far bigger problem is this:-

Trump and the Republican party have demonstrated their contempt for the peaceful transition of power, and also for the right of every vote to count. Without those two processes being respected and protected, democracy dies, or becomes the sham that you can see in Russia and elsewhere. Between the 2020 election and Jan 6 Trump and the GOP made it clear that they didn't respect either of those processes, and if they are re-elected, we can assume that they will continue as they did before: substituting Fake Electors for the real ones, negating people's votes and refusing to leave office. It'll only take one more Trump victory for democracy to disappear from American politics, and that's when the US voter will understand the difference between "feel they don't have a choice" and actually not having a choice.

To quote Liz Cheney again, "America is sleepwalking towards an autocracy". Wake up while you still can, Nimbly

I like how you say all that but can't even admit that Big Tech censored the Hunter Biden laptop story to try to control the flow of information for the purposes of trying to minimize what independents would have wanted to know more about when deciding who to vote for back in 2020.

After the NY Post story came out, all the pro-Biden outlets and CNN and their ilk shouted loudly "Russian disinformation11!" and created a false narrative, only to take it back months and months later after the 2020 election was over and nobody was listening.  This is an irrefutable thing that happened, and you can't dance around it like it had no bearing whatsoever on anything that came afterward (like Jan. 6th).

If you don't agree with me about this, then I don't see how you can say you believe in democracy.  Every election is a referendum - Trump might have lost anyway even without interference, but I still find that legitimately way more undemocratic than whining about Trump saying he's going to sign executive orders "dictator" style Day 1.  CNN and MSNBC can soundbite him as much as they want - they don't really know what actual dictatorships look like.  Or maybe they don't remember all those executive orders Biden and Obama signed.  Either way, they're stupid AF.  Prior to Trump's win in 2016, he said he'd throw Hillary in jail and go after everyone that went after him.  And did he go after them? No.  He's always talked smack and hasn't changed at all.

January 6th is what you get when people, whether rightly or wrongly, feel their votes didn't really count or were minimized by bigger powers that decided some stories were worth pushing out there and others should be "discredited" because they were inconvenient.  Trump was wrong about voter fraud, but that's not really the point and that's what I'm trying to explain to you.

You can try to paint people you disagree with as faceless mobs all day long, but that's the result of that sort of dismissive approach you tend to lean into in these debates.  If the shoe had been on the other foot and Big Tech had tried to squash pro-Biden stories (and Trump got re-elected as a result), you'd have been praising any protests at the capitol that would have interrupted the "peaceful" transfer of power to Trump.

[SGR]

Trump and the Republican party have demonstrated their contempt for the peaceful transition of power, and also for the right of every vote to count. Without those two processes being respected and protected, democracy dies, or becomes the sham that you can see in Russia and elsewhere. Between the 2020 election and Jan 6 Trump and the GOP made it clear that they didn't respect either of those processes, and if they are re-elected, we can assume that they will continue as they did before: substituting Fake Electors for the real ones, negating people's votes and refusing to leave office. It'll only take one more Trump victory for democracy to disappear from American politics, and that's when the US voter will understand the difference between "feel they don't have a choice" and actually not having a choice.

You know what the big takeaway for liberals and republicans should have been from the 2020 election controversy? It should have been that we in fact don't have a way to know if the election was fair or not. The election system is not completely auditable, and it's not completely transparent. If it was, there would be no room to question it. Unfortunately, liberals bury their head in the sand and say ridiculous things like: "It was the most secure election in American history", while MAGA Republicans decry that it was stolen and neither can show you the proof either way. Instead we get a bunch of useless political grandstanding and finger-pointing: "You stole the election!", "Oh yeah, well you're a mean authoritarian who wants to destroy our democracy!". In 2020, we realized that basically all of our institutions are corrupt - our media, our pharmaceutical companies, our government, our social media companies, our news organizations, etc. But our election systems are the one thing that's completely secure and in no way corrupt? 

If Republicans and Democrats actually cared about transparency in the elections, they'd be hammering home that we need election/voting reform and we need to find a way to make the system auditable and transparent such that there's no doubt on the outcomes, but that isn't happening with either party. And it won't happen, because this election/voting system we have now is what resulted in all of them being elected, so why would they want to change/improve it? A recent survey by Rasmussen doesn't exactly instill me with confidence as an American citizen in our elections:

One-in-Five Mail-In Voters Admit They Cheated in 2020 Election

[Shhon]

[Nimbly9]

You know what the big takeaway for liberals and republicans should have been from the 2020 election controversy? It should have been that we in fact don't have a way to know if the election was fair or not. The election system is not completely auditable, and it's not completely transparent. If it was, there would be no room to question it. Unfortunately, liberals bury their head in the sand and say ridiculous things like: "It was the most secure election in American history", while MAGA Republicans decry that it was stolen and neither can show you the proof either way. Instead we get a bunch of useless political grandstanding and finger-pointing: "You stole the election!", "Oh yeah, well you're a mean authoritarian who wants to destroy our democracy!". In 2020, we realized that basically all of our institutions are corrupt - our media, our pharmaceutical companies, our government, our social media companies, our news organizations, etc. But our election systems are the one thing that's completely secure and in no way corrupt? 

If Republicans and Democrats actually cared about transparency in the elections, they'd be hammering home that we need election/voting reform and we need to find a way to make the system auditable and transparent such that there's no doubt on the outcomes, but that isn't happening with either party. And it won't happen, because this election/voting system we have now is what resulted in all of them being elected, so why would they want to change/improve it? A recent survey by Rasmussen doesn't exactly instill me with confidence as an American citizen in our elections:

One-in-Five Mail-In Voters Admit They Cheated in 2020 Election

Yep, not to mention the fact (and I've debated this with Lisna before) that Democrats are the ones who have been cultivating doubt in our election systems since the late 90s. Even getting them to agree about something like Voter ID is like pulling teeth.  Trump just saw an opportunity after 4 years of the media accusing him of being a "fake" President to give them a taste of their own medicine, and here we are.

The U.S. has a ton of issues, but one of the easiest things to do would be to lower the bar significantly to allow 3rd party or completely independent candidates to get on the national ballots for POTUS.  Every election doesn't need to be a race to the bottom between two parties - we can let people stand or fall on their own merits.  Until this change is made though, I'd argue we don't really have an actual democracy in the truest sense of the word anyway.

[SGR]

Yep, not to mention the fact (and I've debated this with Lisna before) that Democrats are the ones who have been cultivating doubt in our election systems since the late 90s. Even getting them to agree about something like Voter ID is like pulling teeth.  Trump just saw an opportunity after 4 years of the media accusing him of being a "fake" President to give them a taste of their own medicine, and here we are.

The U.S. has a ton of issues, but one of the easiest things to do would be to lower the bar significantly to allow 3rd party or completely independent candidates to get on the national ballots for POTUS.  Every election doesn't need to be a race to the bottom between two parties - we can let people stand or fall on their own merits.  Until this change is made though, I'd argue we don't really have an actual democracy in the truest sense of the word anyway.

Yeah, I don't understand it. I don't understand how honest Democrats could look at how they were lied to about 'Trump-Russia' collusion for years (financed by Hillary), the 'fine people on both sides' hoax, the 'drinking bleach' hoax, the Covington Kids hoax, the COVID-19 origins coverup/censorship, the intelligence operation to get social media companies to censor news about Hunter Biden's laptop, and the subsequent censorship involved with questioning the election and still believe these people are 'the good guys'; The ones 'valiantly fighting for Democracy'. 

Both parties have been corrupt and despicable for a long time, it's the whole reason why Bernie and Trump were so popular. And they won't make it easier for third party candidates to gain a footing or a voice because then they'd have to give up control. Almost everyone from each party plays for the same team, similar donors, only slightly different agendas. War is popular with both parties, for example. Let no good crisis go to waste. I'd love to see the media give attention to both Green and Libertarians. Put them all on the debate stage and let them have at it. I love America, but I think we can do better - and it starts with giving people more than a binary choice. Let people decide - based on the free marketplace of ideas who is best suited to lead this country. It's looking now like we'll have to decide between a septuagenarian and an octagenarian - we've taken a wrong turn somewhere, that's all I'm saying.

[Lisnaholic]

Thanks for your long responses, Nimbly and SGR. Unfortunately I have limited time both now and in the week ahead as I am flying to England tomorrow.
However , I have a quick answer to these two comments:

Lisna, you realize that Americans on either side of the political aisle don't like Liz Cheney, right? 

She's out and about talking to media pundits to promote her new book.

^ Yes, I'm well aware that she's not popular, but also I'm aware that being right and being popular are not the same thing. I'd put C Christie on the debate stage recently in the same "Right but not popular " category.

You know what the big takeaway for liberals and republicans should have been from the 2020 election controversy? It should have been that we in fact don't have a way to know if the election was fair or not. The election system is not completely auditable, and it's not completely transparent. If it was, there would be no room to question it. Unfortunately, liberals bury their head in the sand and say ridiculous things like: "It was the most secure election in American history", while MAGA Republicans decry that it was stolen and neither can show you the proof either way. Instead we get a bunch of useless political grandstanding and finger-pointing: "You stole the election!", "Oh yeah, well you're a mean authoritarian who wants to destroy our democracy!". In 2020, we realized that basically all of our institutions are corrupt - our media, our pharmaceutical companies, our government, our social media companies, our news organizations, etc. But our election systems are the one thing that's completely secure and in no way corrupt? 

If Republicans and Democrats actually cared about transparency in the elections, they'd be hammering home that we need election/voting reform and we need to find a way to make the system auditable and transparent such that there's no doubt on the outcomes, but that isn't happening with either party. And it won't happen, because this election/voting system we have now is what resulted in all of them being elected, so why would they want to change/improve it? A recent survey by Rasmussen doesn't exactly instill me with confidence as an American citizen in our elections:

One-in-Five Mail-In Voters Admit They Cheated in 2020 Election

I think the bold is either not true or a mis-representation of the facts. Fact: the Republicans had how many months was it to come up with evidence of significant fraud.They went to court about 60 times to show fraud and each case was rejected for lack of evidence. Even Giulliani said "We have theories, but no evidence" and has been convicted of defamation for alleging fraud that wasn't there. There were countless audits by Ninja Turtle Charlatan Group among others: again no evidence of fraud. It was one of the most observed, double checked elections that I've ever followed on the news, and to say "if it was completely auditable, completely transparent there would be no room to question it" suggests that you've missed the whole
Roger Stone/Steve Bannon/ Donald Trump strategy: throw enough doubts/confusion/bs at an issue, and people won't feel capable of trusting the evidence. But the evidence is there, 60 to zero in the law courts.

Your article: yes, those look like high percentages of mail-in misconduct, which clearly could be improved on. But those figures don't show all the misconduct favouring one candidate, so they can't be counted as a result-changing reason to chuck the election results out, though a policy of "do better next time" would be a good idea. To me, that's more in the nature of the democratic ideal getting fudged in its application, so goes along with gerrymandering and the whole lopsided thing about states, their populations and the numbers of representatives they send to the Capitol. Lots of room for improvement in the US election process, but not enough to reject it wholesale, imo. MAGA want to do that because Trump is the worst loser in American history. 

[Lisnaholic]

the 'fine people on both sides' hoax, the 'drinking bleach' hoax,

^ In haste, but not in anger, SGR, but what is this ?! There is video evidence: Trump said both of those things - though perhaps it wasn't specifically "drinking" the bleach: he wanted that doctor to work out the details of exactly how the bleach got to the lungs.