2024 US Election: Post-mortem

[SGR]

So another election that's in the books for America and the reality is now setting in at the end of a long (and what sometimes felt like a never-ending) campaign cycle and long year. We all touched on some things in the 2024 US Election thread, but I figured it might be worthwhile to have a thread dedicated to discussions on it now that the dust is settling and emotions aren't running quite as high. I was initially considering one thread dedicated to post-mortem for Republicans and then another for Democrats, but given our small user base, I don't think it's worth splintering the discussion.

Some thoughts for discussion starters:

• What should the general takeaways be from this election?
• What did the Democrats (Biden/Kamala) do right/wrong? What did the Republicans (Trump) do right/wrong?
• What does this election tell us about our current media landscape?
• What role did journalists/news media play in the election? How did they influence it for bad or for good?
• What role did demographics and demographic voting patterns play in the election?
• How accurate were the polls? Were they more reliable and accurate than the previous two general elections?
• How did the multiple legal cases against Trump affect the election?
• Was Biden withdrawing from the race and having Kamala run in his stead the right decision?
• Where do the Democrats go from here, how do they approach a second Trump presidency, and what can they do to improve their electoral success in the 2028 election?
• Where do Republicans go after Trump? This will be his last term in office - beyond obviously a change in nominee, do the Republicans change their message to voters?
• How do you see this election affecting the legacy of Joe Biden? How will it affect the legacy of Donald Trump?

I'd prefer if we kept discussions about what the Trump admin may or may not do (domestically or foreign policy) in his second term to a different thread(s) [we have plenty of them, and there will be all kinds of discussion to be had surely], as I'd like this one to simply focus on the 2024 election, how it may impact/influence strategy for the 2028 election between both parties, and what we can learn from all of it.

[Lisnaholic]

... now that the dust is settling and emotions aren't running quite as high.

Actually, I've been surprised at how disappointed I have felt about the election result, so I'm disinclined to post-mortemise the election right now, and even though it's in the rear-view mirror, I'm not sure that dust-settling is the appropriate image; to me the election was like the ominous flurry that warns you: a ghastly sh*t storm is inevitably approaching. Or how about this metaphor, SGR: one lemming to another: "The dust is settling on our decision to jump off the cliff. Now's a good moment to reassess our decision."

Despite that gloom, I personally wish you a very Happy New Year !  

[SGR]

Actually, I've been surprised at how disappointed I have felt about the election result, so I'm disinclined to post-mortemise the election right now, and even though it's in the rear-view mirror, I'm not sure that dust-settling is the appropriate image; to me the election was like the ominous flurry that warns you: a ghastly sh*t storm is inevitably approaching. Or how about this metaphor, SGR: one lemming to another: "The dust is settling on our decision to jump off the cliff. Now's a good moment to reassess our decision."

Despite that gloom, I personally wish you a very Happy New Year !  

Hey, did you just call me a lemming?! 

Jokes aside, I understand if some aren't ready to contribute to or engage in this discussion yet.

Happy New Year! 

[Lisnaholic]

Hey, did you just call me a lemming?! 

^  oops ! my apologies, SGR: I should refine my metaphor to include you as a dispassionate observer on the cliff-top, with a clipboard, a questionaire and stopwatch, monitoring who is jumping and why.

[Buck_Mulligan]

General, I'd say it was a reminder that the US is still a 51/49 country. Whatever advantages the D's may believe they have in demographics are at least partially offset by the R advantage in the Electoral College.

Dems right, ditching Biden.

Dems wrong, failure to have a quick primary after ditching Biden. Too late in ditching woke. Failure to adhere to the dictum "It's the economy stupid". Cultural snobbery.

Reps right, Mostly clear message on what they will do upon election, even if it alienates some. Micro-targeting of low propensity voters, e.g. young men. Recognizing that not all immigrants are in favor of illegal immigration.

Reps wrong, Tariffs, but that is intangible until you are forced to pay more.

More later.

[SGR]

^  oops ! my apologies, SGR: I should refine my metaphor to include you as a dispassionate observer on the cliff-top, with a clipboard, a questionaire and stopwatch, monitoring who is jumping and why.

Though I will say, as the arbiter of jumps, we haven't seen that many this campaign cycle. I blame the age of most of our nominees. 

[DJChameleon]

General, I'd say it was a reminder that the US is still a 51/49 country. Whatever advantages the D's may believe they have in demographics are at least partially offset by the R advantage in the Electoral College.

Dems right, ditching Biden.

Dems wrong, failure to have a quick primary after ditching Biden. Too late in ditching woke. Failure to adhere to the dictum "It's the economy stupid". Cultural snobbery.

Reps right, Mostly clear message on what they will do upon election, even if it alienates some. Micro-targeting of low propensity voters, e.g. young men. Recognizing that not all immigrants are in favor of illegal immigration.

Reps wrong, Tariffs, but that is intangible until you are forced to pay more.

More later.

Reps were the ones that went all in with culture stuff but just playing into people's fears about "woke" culture. The dem campaign didn't ditch woke they never used it. They didn't rely on Harris being the first female president like Hillary did with her campaign. Reps voted based off of their fear around their perception of boys playing in girl sports and all the anti immigrant stuff.


I think the Harris didn't do enough to separate herself from Biden. So people just associated all the bad things from Biden administration as being the same as Harris. Also Biden shouldn't have even run for re election anyways when he initially said he was going to be a one term president.

[Buck_Mulligan]

Agreed the Rs went all in on woke, and you're correct Ds may not have "officially" abandoned woke, but there have been calls to deemphasize from Richie Torres, Mondair Jones, and some others. It's unlikely that "woke" policies will be promoted vigorously going forward.
The D's allowed the R's to define them as woke evangelists. Once bitten, twice shy.

[Buck_Mulligan]

The 2024 election confirms the trend that has been obvious for several years, i.e, that the fragmentation of the MSM is almost complete.
The kerfuffle about the WaPo and LAT refusal to endorse was just a storm in a teacup. Beyond the journos, few care. The rise and influence of podcasts is just another version of the Fox vs. MNBC cable rivalry. People are just looking to have their existing views reinforced.

[SGR]

The 2024 election confirms the trend that has been obvious for several years, i.e, that the fragmentation of the MSM is almost complete.
The kerfuffle about the WaPo and LAT refusal to endorse was just a storm in a teacup. Beyond the journos, few care. The rise and influence of podcasts is just another version of the Fox vs. MNBC cable rivalry. People are just looking to have their existing views reinforced.

Reminds me of something former Fox News CEO Roger Ailes said in the early days of the network:

"People don't want to be informed, they want to feel informed".

It's so simple and obvious that it almost feels like it shouldn't be true, but as a business insight in this field, it seems like it is true, and probably extends to the podcast scene. In fact, it's probably a factor in why conspiracy theories are so popular - you're not actually informed, but it feels like you are so informed, that you have some secret knowledge and grasp on the subject that most other people don't have - an appeal and boon to your ego, so to say.

Ryssdal: Part of his business genius was that he put stuff on the air that was just flat cheaper, right? Opinion and commentary is cheaper than actual reported journalism.

Sherman: Without question. I mean, this was again one of Ailes' unique insights. There was a famous saying inside Fox News when Ailes launched the network in 1996 – "People don't want to be informed, they want to feel informed." So, what Ailes did is he adopted all the trappings of a news network — the anchor desk, the sets, the studios. But he basically shed all the actual functions of journalism, which are bureaus, reporters out in the fields, expensive things like that. And so you have two people in the studio commenting on the news, and the audience at home doesn't necessarily feel that they're actually getting anything less. So that was one of his unique business insights. It was  just a cheaper product to make, and the profit margins on Fox are reflective of that. It generates more than a billion dollars a year for Twenty-First Century Fox, the parent company.

[Buck_Mulligan]

What role did journalists/news media play in the election? How did they influence it for bad or for good?
What role did demographics and demographic voting patterns play in the election?

I think journalists played a significant role, but only at the margins, far left and far right. The journos catering to those demographics produced only content in favor of their side, or unfavorable to the other side, and directed it to those who only wanted to consume such content, the Fox/MSNBC and similar online audiences.
In a 51/49 electorate those at the margins are large enough to make a difference.

I heard recently that if a total of 279,000 votes in six states (out of 150M cast nationwide) had gone the other way we would have a different result.

As to demographics, there were several surprises that tipped the balance.
I think the most important was the increased migration of hispanics to the Rs.
They are the largest of the minority groups. The Macho Bro culture appealed to black, white, and hispanic young men.
The other big surprise was the failure of Harris to make inroads with the female vote, particularly older white women.

The Ds also lost their advantage in the early/mail voting.