Trump Redux: The Death of Democracy, or Overblown Hyperbole?

[Buck_Mulligan]

If you want to win the next election after you've lost the last one you have to just suck it up and get to work. Complaining about the winners may make you feel good, but is a waste of time and energy. Fight back with better politics and policies.

Here's a blog post that was written long before the election, July 17, 2024. It outlines 19 areas where the Ds were losing out to the Rs in understanding the "vibe shift" in US politics. I don't agree with all but you can see that others easily might. It's a partial work order for the Ds.

In an NYT column Jan. 19, 2025 Ezra Klein referenced this blog post and acknowledged it as one of the most prescient.

Here's the original blog post, and the full NYT article.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/07/the-changes-in-vibes-why-did-they-happen.html


https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/01/ezra-klein-on-the-vibe-shift.html

https://archive.ph/d8lp3

I should also note that Tyler Cowen is a Libertarian academic economist, very much of the "intellectual" class.
See point #7 in his post where he notes that people don't like being ruled by people like him.

[jimmy jazz]

Question for the worriers: where do you genuinely believe we will be in 4 years?

Surely you believe by 2028 there won't be an election?

[Trollheart]

If that's a serious question, I don't quite believe there won't be an election, but I feel it will be almost Saddam Hussein-like, where there really is one party and they have a stranglehold on the country, and there's no choice. I also feel - know - that the cost of living, which is already too fucking high, is likely to skyrocket thanks to Trump's trade war with just about everyone. Unemployment is likely to rise to unprecedented levels, home repossessions will also rise, and I see America really withdrawing, Japan-like, into a very insular nation whose leaders are primarily, and principally, and even only concerned with events within their own borders, and leave the rest of the world to fend for itself.

I see civil rights being rolled back as the far right are given more or less free rein, I see women's reproductive rights being trampled on, and I don't think it's stretching the bounds too far to see a Trump dynasty emerging, where by manipulating the vote or by spouting his usual lies and sowing fear, Trump convinces the American public there is nobody else who can lead this country other than his progeny.

I also see a lot of snarky comments coming my way, but then, I'm used to that.

Question for you, @jimmy jazz : how do you see this affecting the UK in the next four years? Given that you are - have to be - such an ally to America, what changes do you see the British government making to appease Trump and stay on his right (hah!) side?

[Lisnaholic]

Thanks for the question, jj.

I assume that by "we", you're really referring to the USA, and although I don't live there, these are some of my guesses:-

1. yes, there'll be an election in 2028, although it'll be heavily weighted in the Republican's favour: with the existing gerrymandering, the existing Electoral College system and with hyped-up media and financial support from Musk, Zuckerburg, Besos and Fox News. If by any chance there were to be a Dem win, we'd see a replay of the whole false-electors/big-lie scenario.

2. the CDC will lose it's reputation for being a reliable source of scientific advice and data.

3. America will have consolidated its new-found pariah status. (just look at the countries that are NOT in the World Health Organisation to get an idea of the countries the US might be prepared to align itself with on environmental/health issues).

4. The FBI and the Attorney General will not be motivated by the notion of "justice for the people". At best it will offer a cloak of respectablity to disguise Trump's various vendettas and/or pardons.

5. Ditto the IRS, which will use its power to implement vindictive audits (as it has arguably done already during Trump's first term).

6. Ditto the Supreme Court, who will continue to pay lip service to the idea that "no one is above the law", while continuing their current policy of (in fact) placing themselves and Trump beyond the reach of the law.

7. Various minority groups will continue to be demonised, following the propaganda model of the Nazi party.

8. Like with the loss of abortion rights, many people will have, by 2028, resigned themselves to living in a less fair, less equal and more corrupt country.

9. Standards of public safety in the air, in the workplace, for food, vehicles etc, will be reduced, because safety costs money, but doesn't show any return in the profit columns that oligarchs are typically focused on.

10. With the advancing years, Trump will become even more of an erratic meglomaniac.

11. The biggest unknown, imo, is if the GOP or the electorate will reach a point at which they decide "enough is enough"  (to quote the futile, vacant anger of Lindsey Graham)

So, bottom line, jimmyjazz: election or no, there's still plenty to worry about

[jimmy jazz]

If you want to win the next election after you've lost the last one you have to just suck it up and get to work. Complaining about the winners may make you feel good, but is a waste of time and energy. Fight back with better politics and policies.

Totally agree, you got the same thing here as well with Labour voters when the Tories kept winning. It should be time for some self reflection.

[jimmy jazz]

If that's a serious question, I don't quite believe there won't be an election, but I feel it will be almost Saddam Hussein-like, where there really is one party and they have a stranglehold on the country, and there's no choice. I also feel - know - that the cost of living, which is already too fucking high, is likely to skyrocket thanks to Trump's trade war with just about everyone. Unemployment is likely to rise to unprecedented levels, home repossessions will also rise, and I see America really withdrawing, Japan-like, into a very insular nation whose leaders are primarily, and principally, and even only concerned with events within their own borders, and leave the rest of the world to fend for itself.

I see civil rights being rolled back as the far right are given more or less free rein, I see women's reproductive rights being trampled on, and I don't think it's stretching the bounds too far to see a Trump dynasty emerging, where by manipulating the vote or by spouting his usual lies and sowing fear, Trump convinces the American public there is nobody else who can lead this country other than his progeny.

I also see a lot of snarky comments coming my way, but then, I'm used to that.

Question for you, @jimmy jazz : how do you see this affecting the UK in the next four years? Given that you are - have to be - such an ally to America, what changes do you see the British government making to appease Trump and stay on his right (hah!) side?

It is a serious question because of the idea that the USA is now under a Nazi regime. If you genuinely believe that then you have to believe there won't be an election or there will be a completely rigged one with just one choice on the ballot in 2028 at the very most. You must surely think that Trump won't be gone after then unless he dies?

What about concentration camps, do you think those are coming?

I don't see it affecting us much. Maybe some issues with tariffs and trade at the most. I can't see there being anything else.

[Weekender]

It's anybody's guess really. When he says he wants to build a concentration camp I'm inclined to believe him. Just like The Wall though, the end product may be watered down.

I don't know if he declares himself dictator, but even that seems more likely than him peacefully accepting an electoral win for Democrats. So again some softer version of that, some kind of election interference similar to what Putin does.

[Lexi Darling]

What about concentration camps, do you think those are coming?

Already here.

[jimmy jazz]

Already here.

That's been there long before Trump got into power so you can't blame that on him.

Do you believe his government is going to build camps and then start mass executing people?

[Lexi Darling]

That's been there long before Trump got into power so you can't blame that on him.

Do you believe his government is going to build camps and then start mass executing people?

The facility itself existed, but it wasn't being used for the purpose of detaining 30,000 migrants seized from public life in America back in the 2000s when it was built. Trump issued an executive order in January to begin using it for that purpose.

Also you asked about concentration camps, not death camps.

[degrassiknoll]

It has at most held something like 800 prisoners, right? The math alone implies the conditions.

People are already being killed, tortured, trafficked, starved... and those are just the children's facilities.

[jimmy jazz]

The facility itself existed, but it wasn't being used for the purpose of detaining 30,000 migrants seized from public life in America back in the 2000s when it was built. Trump issued an executive order in January to begin using it for that purpose.

Also you asked about concentration camps, not death camps.

We're working on the assumption that this is a Nazi regime. You can call them whatever you want to call them. Do you believe Trump is going to do the same thing here? Build/open new camps for the purpose of mass murder.

Also the election question.

[Trollheart]

It is a serious question because of the idea that the USA is now under a Nazi regime. If you genuinely believe that then you have to believe there won't be an election or there will be a completely rigged one with just one choice on the ballot in 2028 at the very most. You must surely think that Trump won't be gone after then unless he dies?

Already answered above. A Trump dynasty will be established.

What about concentration camps, do you think those are coming?

If America could build them to hold Japanese Americans, then absolutely, yes I can see it. Call it "resettlement" or whatever you like, I'd be surprised if he didn't try that.

I don't see it affecting us much. Maybe some issues with tariffs and trade at the most. I can't see there being anything else.

Unless, as I hope, America turns inwards and retreats from the world stage, I think you're being very naive here. Trump has the power to command the UK military - aren't there American bases over there? - and Musk has already stuck his long pointy nose into criminal affairs in Britain; you really think they're not going to try to extend their power over you? I mean, I don't know specifically how it will go, but to think you'll just be left alone - well, I hope so, but I doubt it.

[jimmy jazz]

I didn't say that re: Musk. I've posted about that already so you should know I'm aware of him sticking his nose into our affairs recently if you've seen the posts. Just that I don't think it'll affect us much if at all.

[Buck_Mulligan]

It has at most held something like 800 prisoners, right? The math alone implies the conditions.

People are already being killed, tortured, trafficked, starved... and those are just the children's facilities.

I think you're out ahead of your ski's with that last sentence. That does not mean I believe everything is hunky dory.
I'm not endorsing the proposal, but the US has been at Guantanamo since 1903. It typically has 8,500 US personnel. It's about 4 sq miles in size. I think that will be sufficient for 30,000, even if they have to use tents.