European Affairs Discussion Thread

[Buck_Mulligan]

With the transatlantic alliance currently on shaky ground, and Sunday's election in Germany I thought it useful to have a thread to discuss European issues. I've spent half my life on each side of the Atlantic, so I may have a perspective from each side.

I didn't put this in the politics section because I'd like it to be about more than politics. Can be a place for anything European country general news related, or themes such as food, travel, whimsical and oddball stuff.

I'll get started with what prompted me, the call for more and better EU defense spending. It seems Macron has been the lone EU leader banging this drum for years without success. Now Starmer is stepping up, but it is disheartening to hear him say Europe united could not protect Ukraine without help from US air power.

Ironically, France just hit its NATO 2% target, and now some are calling for the target to be raised to 4%. NATO estimates that in 2024 23 of the 32 countries will meet the 2% target, up from 10 in 2023. Belgium, Canada, Italy, and Spain are the biggest economies among the laggards. The NATO average in 2024 was 1.7%

US complaints fall into two categories, low overall defense spending, and duplication of spending with every country wanting its own army, navy, air force, and not enough coordination between them. From a money standpoint a European army, navy, Air Force is an attractive proposition, but working out how it is controlled etc. may not be so easy. Anyone got any opinions on that?

More immediately, Sunday's election in Germany could be a cliffhanger. Currently, the four main parties control about 80% of the support. A bunch of smaller parties are fighting to reach 5%. If they end up with 4.99% they get no seats in the Bundestag.
 
Here's an election primer from a newsletter that has lots of other non-German and non-European stuff, so no link. All opinions welcome.

And that leads us to the proposed answers (listed in polling order)...

Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), polling at 30%
The face of the party is Friedrich Merz, widely tipped to end up as Germany's next chancellor. So much so, in fact, that a moderator at last week's Munich Security Conference even accidentally (?) introduced him as chancellor!
Under Merz's leadership, the CDU has flagged an openness to easing the debt brake, while advocating for tougher migration laws, continued support for Ukraine, and reduced economic dependence on China (part of what he calls an "axis of autocracies").
Notable quote: "The most important strategic priority is (...) the restoration of deterrence and defense capabilities"

Alternative for Germany (AfD), polling at 21%
The face of the AfD is Alice Weidel, an ex-banker with a PhD in international development who's fluent in Mandarin (and English), and is raising two sons with her Sri Lankan-born film-maker wife in Switzerland. Now, that's the type of bio you might assume leans left, but Weidel's nationalist-populist platform has included: 
Closed borders and "remigration" (understood to mean deportations)
A German exit from the Paris climate pact and even the EU itself (though Weidel has semi-walked back the latter)
No touching the debt brake, plus
Halting aid to Ukraine while also resuming purchases of Russian gas.
All other major German parties have implemented a "firewall" against working with the AfD due to its extremist links — eg, Germany's domestic intelligence agency has placed part of the AfD under surveillance as an extremist and anti-constitutional group; and courts have twice fined an AfD state-level leader for using a Nazi slogan.
That might explain some of the local shock after Elon Musk endorsed the AfD and the US VP met Weidel during last week's visit to Munich (while snubbing Germany's current leader).
Notable quote: "We have friends in the West and the East"

Social Democrats (SPD), polling at 16%
Olaf Scholz is Germany's current chancellor and the face of his party but, if polls are to be believed, not for much longer. He favours:
Easing the debt brake, plus gradual economic reforms
Reforms to immigration laws (without alienating his more centre-left base), and
A continuation of his steadfast-yet-cautious support for Ukraine.
He's the incumbent at a tough time, who's copped criticism for being too hesitant and risk-averse while trying to hold his unlikely ex-coalition together.
Notable quote: "We need to win confidence back"

Greens, polling at 13%
While you might've heard more about Annalena Baerbock (Germany's foreign minister), it's economy and environment minister Robert Habeck who's the lead Greens candidate: 
His party backs easing the debt brake
He's open to immigration reforms without being anti-immigration, and
He supports continued aid to Ukraine (plus is wary of China's authoritarianism).
Notable quote: "I'm 55 years old and have lived in a country where security and prosperity seemed guaranteed"

As for the other smaller parties, polls suggest most will struggle to reach the 5% threshold to get a seat in the Bundestag. The strongest might be The Left party, which is enjoying a recent surge from young voters after a rising star went viral for dunking on the front-runner (Merz) when he accepted AfD votes on his immigration proposals.

So what's gonna happen? Given the firewall against the AfD, most see Merz emerging atop a grand coalition as the most likely outcome this Sunday — the exact make-up of any coalition will determine how decisive he can then be in tackling Germany's mounting political, economic, and geopolitical challenges.

It's been a brutal final week in Germany as campaigns flood the airwaves and plaster every town — big and small — with posters per Kristen's pic above. And speaking of photos, there was an incident outside an AfD campaign event this week as Intrigue tried to take a pic of loud counter-protests while AfD folks angled to get inside — an AfD supporter snapped, warning that they didn't want to be pictured at the event.

It was all a reminder not only of the tension in the air, but also the difficulty in measuring support for a party like the AfD. And JD Vance's decision to meet the AfD's leader (but not Scholz) a week before election day might've nudged things either way:
Perhaps it removed stigma around supporting the AfD, and/or
Maybe it just fuelled irritation at US interference.
We'll get an answer from Sunday.

Also worth noting:
A single party needs to win more than 50% of the seats to rule outright, something that's never happened in recent history. Given Germany's challenges, there's real public (and broader European) pressure to finalise the inevitable post-election coalition-forming process asap.

[Trollheart]

For those who, like me, didn't know what it was:

Germany's balanced budget amendment, also referred to as the debt brake (German: Schuldenbremse), is a fiscal rule enacted in 2009 by the First Merkel cabinet. The law, which is in Article 109, paragraph 3 and Article 115 of the Basic Law, Germany's constitution, is designed to restrict structural budget deficits at the federal level and limit the issuance of government debt. The rule restricts annual structural deficits to 0.35% of GDP.[1]

The debt brake is controversial among economists. It is supported by a German strand of economics, ordoliberalism, while other economists have challenged the rule.[2][3] In 2024, amid a stagnating German economy, Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel called on the German government to reform the debt brake in order to finance structural investments in the German economy.

[Trollheart]

RTE have an interesting report on the situation in the former East Germany...

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2025/0222/1498266-germany-politics/

[Buck_Mulligan]

For those who, like me, didn't know what it was:

While the US feral gubermint runs budget deficits, all the states are required to balance their budgets.

[Trollheart]

Sure, but the phrase "Debt brake" meant nothing to me till I went to look it up, which is why I posted that explanation.

[Buck_Mulligan]

RTE have an interesting report on the situation in the former East Germany...

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2025/0222/1498266-germany-politics/

In my truck driving days in the 80's I was in Germany 6-8 times a year. Generally speaking I found the Germans to have some admirable traits, and some less than admirable, such as the German way is the best way, even though in those days it often was Even in the 80's there seemed to be a hangover from the 1920's super inflation wheel barrows of money days. If you don't have cash, don't buy. Credit cards were not widely accepted. It was sometimes difficult to find a station that would accept a non-German Visa card to buy diesel.

[Trollheart]

Looks like the AfD made big gains, even if they're isolated as no other party in government will deal with them. Isn't this though like what happened with the Nazi Party originally? They won a tiny percent, then the next time a larger until they were the party in power?

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2025/0223/1498349-germany-politics/

[jimmy jazz]

Looks like the AfD made big gains, even if they're isolated as no other party in government will deal with them. Isn't this though like what happened with the Nazi Party originally? They won a tiny percent, then the next time a larger until they were the party in power?

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2025/0223/1498349-germany-politics/

Yes although they lost some seats and votes before seizing power.

[Buck_Mulligan]

Looks like the AfD made big gains, even if they're isolated as no other party in government will deal with them. Isn't this though like what happened with the Nazi Party originally? They won a tiny percent, then the next time a larger until they were the party in power?

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2025/0223/1498349-germany-politics/

They may have gained since the last election, but that was reflected in the polls in the OP, so no big surprises so far. Polling for all parties seems to have been accurate. The road to a coalition may now be slippery and end up on thin ice.

[Buck_Mulligan]

Ursula will present an $800B defense plan to the EU summit on Thursday. Hungary and Serbia will be the likely holdouts.

The Commission chief claimed that if EU countries increase their defence spending by 1.5% of GDP on average, €650 billion could be freed over the coming four years.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/04/von-der-leyen-pitches-800bn-defence-package-ahead-of-eu-leaders-summit

Separately, Merz has secured $1B for immediate use and announced plans for a $500B defense and infrastructure fund.

A provision would exempt defence spending above 1% of GDP from debt brake rules, enabling Germany to increase military spending without limit.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz has revealed plans for a new €500 billion special fund aimed at boosting infrastructure and defence spending.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/04/cdus-friedrich-merz-secures-billion-euro-deal-for-germanys-military-and-infrastructure

[Buck_Mulligan]

Denmark is shutting down its 400 year old postal service. I'm surprised more countries haven't done this already. Every postal service is bleeding money as a result of falling volumes due to email. Germany is laying off 8,000 postal employees.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg8jllq283o

[Buck_Mulligan]

Poland is looking to get themselves some nukes, or at least some non-US nuclear protection.

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-plan-train-poland-men-military-service-russia/

[Psy-Fi]

European countries should 'absolutely' introduce conscription, Latvian president says