2024 US Presidential Election

[SGR]

I understand your point, SGR, but I think "spend itself into oblivion" is a overstating things, especially if this 2022 chart is accurate or relevant:-



At $95 B, the proposed spending is about 1% of total 2022 spending. The cash will be split between 3 international allies (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan), with Ukraine getting $60 B. Very generous of the US, but it's a pretty slim slice of pizza on the pie chart.

I appreciate how you're trying to contextualize things to make me feel better @Lisnaholic , but a couple things:

• That chart is from 2022, and doesn't represent large amounts of aid to Ukraine from 2023 and 2024
• While that chart might showcase our federal spending, it does not showcase our ballooning national debt, which I think is unsustainable should we continue down the path we appear to be on - which also affects the value of our dollar and our interest rates, which is a large part of why my generation can't even afford a home to start a family

Federal debt held by the public (that is, the total amount of money that the federal government owes to its investors) will continue to grow faster than the economy, which is unsustainable.

Historically, debt has decreased during peacetime and economic expansions. But this pattern has changed in recent decades. Unless current revenue and spending policies change, by 2028 debt will reach its historical high of 106 percent of GDP, according to our simulation. If unaddressed, it will grow more than twice as fast as the economy and reach 200 percent of GDP by 2050.

• Let's say this chart of yours was from 2024 for the sake of argument. Is my criticism of how my spend-happy government spends our tax dollars not valid because it spends a shit ton of it in other places, which makes the aid to Ukraine look minor in comparison?

Here's another chart that might alleviate the sting of US spending on Ukraine: by percentage of GDP, the US is squarely in the middle of the pack:

 

This is a perfect example of what I mentioned earlier in the thread about how stats/charts/graphs should be treated with skepticism. This chart doesn't mention the GDP of the countries listed. The US GDP dwarfs the GDP of all these other countries. You could combine the GDP of all the countries (other than the US) and you'd be lucky if you had even half of the US GDP ($25.5 trillion in 2022). It alleviates the sting of US spending because Lithuania and Slovakia are sending more to Ukraine in aid as a percentage of their rinky-dink countries' GDP? Nah. 

^ As you said elsewhere, SGR, you and I seem to be going round in a loop trying to find the blame for this funding shortfall at the border.

Yes, we have been going back and forth on this, but in my last comment, I'm not trying to even find or assign blame. I'm simply noting how curious it is that our two major parties can so quickly agree on sending tens of billions to Ukraine and Israel, but can't seem to figure out how to handle our own border. What, if anything, does this tell us?

^ Are we destined to come to opposite conclusions on every political story, SGR ?
I don't know the details of this news item, but it certainly throws up a red flag for someone: do we red-flag all 15 members of RFK's family, or do we red-flag RFK ? To me, just by the numbers, it's more likely that RFK is at fault, how else would their disapproval be so uniform? 

The essence of this argument makes no sense to me. Because RFK Jr's family totals more in number (more than 1), they should be given the benefit of the doubt and we should assume it's RFK Jr's fault? Could we extend this argument to (yes, I'm now invoking Godwin's Law) the Nazis and the Jews? Do we red-flag the hundreds of thousands of Jews in Nazi Germany, or do we red-flag the tens of millions of Nazis? If the Jews weren't at fault, how else would the Nazis' disapproval be so uniform? 

I jest, but my original comment had nothing to do with who is right and who is wrong in this scenario - because I don't know, ultimately, and the answer is most likely subjective. Rather just that I sympathize with RFK Jr for having a family that is happy to come out publicly in opposition to him.

[SGR]

I'm not familiar with all the details, but from what I did read I wouldn't waste too much sympathy on RFKJ. as his family, from what I understand, distanced themselves from his Nazi-supporting, right wing, Covid-denying, sonspiracy theories supporting (and advancing) and all but right wing views, and in an attempt not to allow their legacy and name to be shit on by a right wing in all but name nutjob. I'd have done the same in their position.

[Lisnaholic]

I appreciate how you're trying to contextualize things to make me feel better @Lisnaholic , but a couple things:

• That chart is from 2022, and doesn't represent large amounts of aid to Ukraine from 2023 and 2024

- Yes, I did point out that its relevance was not 100%

• While that chart might showcase our federal spending, it does not showcase our ballooning national debt, which I think is unsustainable should we continue down the path we appear to be on - which also affects the value of our dollar and our interest rates, which is a large part of why my generation can't even afford a home to start a family

I don't know much about how National Debts work - beyond the fact that every country seems to have one. I'm sorry that it's difficult for your generation to afford a home. Perhaps the housing market is a discussion for another thread as it's such a complex issue

• Let's say this chart of yours was from 2024 for the sake of argument. Is my criticism of how my spend-happy government spends our tax dollars not valid because it spends a shit ton of it in other places, which makes the aid to Ukraine look minor in comparison?

That's a good question, SGR. I didn't mean to say that your argument is not valid, and at one level every dollar spent on A is a dollar not spent on B. I was saying that linking support for Ukraine to "spending to oblivion" is a stretch.


This is a perfect example of what I mentioned earlier in the thread about how stats/charts/graphs should be treated with skepticism. This chart doesn't mention the GDP of the countries listed. The US GDP dwarfs the GDP of all these other countries. You could combine the GDP of all the countries (other than the US) and you'd be lucky if you had even half of the US GDP ($25.5 trillion in 2022). It alleviates the sting of US spending because Lithuania and Slovakia are sending more to Ukraine in aid as a percentage of their rinky-dink countries' GDP? Nah. 
Like I said when I posted the chart, it shows percentage statistics. If you just look at it and say "Which bar is biggest?" then it could be misleading, but it doesn't have to be treated skepticism; plenty of people understand the difference between proportional and net figures. Yes, the US sends the biggest chunk of cash, but like in many areas of countries joining together to fund international causes, the fairest principle is some proportional system. Or what? The USA and Malta (pop. = 0.4 million) should pay the same towards, I don't know, cancer research, NATO or whatever ? 

Yes, we have been going back and forth on this, but in my last comment, I'm not trying to even find or assign blame. I'm simply noting how curious it is that our two major parties can so quickly agree on sending tens of billions to Ukraine and Israel, but can't seem to figure out how to handle our own border. What, if anything, does this tell us?
I don't know who is more surprised at the phrase "can so quickly": me or Zelenskyy

The essence of this argument makes no sense to me. Because RFK Jr's family totals more in number (more than 1), they should be given the benefit of the doubt and we should assume it's RFK Jr's fault? Could we extend this argument to (yes, I'm now invoking Godwin's Law) the Nazis and the Jews? Do we red-flag the hundreds of thousands of Jews in Nazi Germany, or do we red-flag the tens of millions of Nazis? If the Jews weren't at fault, how else would the Nazis' disapproval be so uniform? 

I jest, but my original comment had nothing to do with who is right and who is wrong in this scenario - because I don't know, ultimately, and the answer is most likely subjective. Rather just that I sympathize with RFK Jr for having a family that is happy to come out publicly in opposition to him.
Perhaps we should agree to differ on this one, SGR, because I'm too tired to explore RFKJ's record - but it looks like Trollheart has done some research, and his mention of "Covid-denying" is another red flag against the guy.    

Thanks as always for your good humour, and I hope the pink font isn't too hard on your eyes!

[Lexi Darling]

Not sure why Steve Harvey is so dumbfounded, RFK has 100% pushed antisemitic conspiracy shit pretty openly, along with plenty of other offensively horrible conspiracy theories. I don't know how you would think that's a surprising thing for TH to say, lol.

[SGR]

Not sure why Steve Harvey is so dumbfounded, RFK has 100% pushed antisemitic conspiracy shit pretty openly, along with plenty of other offensively horrible conspiracy theories. I don't know how you would think that's a surprising thing for TH to say, lol.

To be honest, it was me who was dumbfounded because I didn't connect the dots of what (I think) TH meant, I was genuinely confused because I think I read it too literally - the way you just framed it, I think I understand where he was coming from now, though perhaps you or TH could provide me with additional context (admittedly, I haven't followed RFK Jr as closely as Trump/Biden). I didn't connect 'nazi supporting' with that thing he said about COVID-19 being ethnically designed to not target Jews (and Chinese people). I'm guessing that's what TH meant. The other thing that confused me was 'covid denying' - I'm guessing that's in reference to RFK Jr's controversial views on vaccines (or maybe it was an extension on the previous point of his claim it was designed to ethnically target) - if that's not the case, I'm not sure what's meant by that. Maybe I'm just not aware of something RFK Jr. said.

RFK Jr has said some pretty controversial things, but I wouldn't classify him as a 'right wing nutjob'. He has some views/policy proposals that are left of Republicans and some views/policy proposals that are right of Democrats, he doesn't exactly fit cleanly into one box.

And to TH, my apologies, I should have just asked what you meant instead of replying with a snarky Steve Harvey GIF (which is admittedly one of my favorite GIFs). Sorry about that, brother.

[SGR]

Thanks as always for your good humour, and I hope the pink font isn't too hard on your eyes!

Out of all the font colors you could have chose, you opted with garish hot pink? 

As always @Lisnaholic, I appreciate you taking the time to read and respond to me (even though we often disagree, which kinda makes it fun and insightful) - give me a bit and I'll give you a proper (and hopefully thoughtful) response. Maybe tomorrow.

[Lexi Darling]

To be honest, it was me who was dumbfounded because I didn't connect the dots of what (I think) TH meant, I was genuinely confused because I think I read it too literally - the way you just framed it, I think I understand where he was coming from now, though perhaps you or TH could provide me with additional context (admittedly, I haven't followed RFK Jr as closely as Trump/Biden). I didn't connect 'nazi supporting' with that thing he said about COVID-19 being ethnically designed to not target Jews (and Chinese people). I'm guessing that's what TH meant. The other thing that confused me was 'covid denying' - I'm guessing that's in reference to RFK Jr's controversial views on vaccines (or maybe it was an extension on the previous point of his claim it was designed to ethnically target) - if that's not the case, I'm not sure what's meant by that. Maybe I'm just not aware of something RFK Jr. said.

RFK Jr has said some pretty controversial things, but I wouldn't classify him as a 'right wing nutjob'. He has some views/policy proposals that are left of Republicans and some views/policy proposals that are right of Democrats, he doesn't exactly fit cleanly into one box.

And to TH, my apologies, I should have just asked what you meant instead of replying with a snarky Steve Harvey GIF (which is admittedly one of my favorite GIFs). Sorry about that, brother.

I don't follow him super closely either, but anytime I hear about him it always seems to be someone reporting on the insane shit he says. Here's an overview of some of that.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/10/10/rfk-jr-launches-independent-2024-run-here-are-all-the-conspiracies-he-promotes-from-vaccines-to-mass-shootings/?sh=43efffa53cef

Apologies if my reply came off as a bit indignant. As always I appreciate your respectfulness and willingness to hear others out even if we don't always see eye to eye.

[Psy-Fi]

Former Green Candidate CALLS OUT Party's DYSFUNCTION - w/ Matthew Hoh

[Lisnaholic]

New polling, just in (from 1,000 registered voters):

In a one-on-one match-up: Trump 46% of voters, Biden 44%

With RFKJ: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, RFKJ 13%

I say, "Go RFKJ ! Not for the win, but for helping with Trump's loss." RFKJ is luring away twice as many Trump voters as he is Biden voters - not surprising to judge from what is being said here about his political ideas.

[DJChameleon]

New polling, just in (from 1,000 registered voters):

In a one-on-one match-up: Trump 46% of voters, Biden 44%

With RFKJ: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, RFKJ 13%

I say, "Go RFKJ ! Not for the win, but for helping with Trump's loss." RFKJ is luring away twice as many Trump voters as he is Biden voters - not surprising to judge from what is being said here about his political ideas.

That's strange. I thought he would pull away more left leaning voters from Biden than he would from Trump. RFKJ is more left leaning than the few right stances he has.

[SGR]

That's strange. I thought he would pull away more left leaning voters from Biden than he would from Trump. RFKJ is more left leaning than the few right stances he has.

At this point, I'd take those polling results with a grain of salt until we start to see the polling paint a clear and consistent picture (assuming it does) month after month. This article/polling was from only 4 weeks ago, for example.

What the Polls Say Today: RFK Jr. Now Hurting Biden, Helping Trump

If anything, I think the recent polls would suggest that we still don't know who RFK Jr will pull more votes from. I think if Democrats were confident that RFK Jr. would hurt Trump more than Biden, they wouldn't be expending so much effort trying to block his ballot access.

Another factor will inevitably be voter interest/enthusiasm which NBC News claims is at a 20-year low. This typically indicates that there will be lower voter turnout, so a slice of pie 1,000 person poll might be representative of the way voters might be leaning, it doesn't necessarily indicate which side of the aisle will have greater turnout come election day and of course, the success and visibility of RFK Jr. muddies things further.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/rcna148170

[SGR]

I don't know much about how National Debts work - beyond the fact that every country seems to have one. I'm sorry that it's difficult for your generation to afford a home. Perhaps the housing market is a discussion for another thread as it's such a complex issue.

...

That's a good question, SGR. I didn't mean to say that your argument is not valid, and at one level every dollar spent on A is a dollar not spent on B. I was saying that linking support for Ukraine to "spending to oblivion" is a stretch.

You're right, the issue of housing prices and housing availability is complex and probably would need to be discussed in isolation. I mentioned it not so much to provide an argument or explanation of A --> B causality or anything, just to give you an idea of where some Americans (many in my age bracket/demographic) might be coming from on an emotional level (which ultimately, to probably both of our chagrin, drives voting more than facts and figures do). While of course spending in one area (in this case, Ukranian aid) doesn't mean we can't spend money in other areas domestically and improve on various different problems and situations, just that it can feel frustrating seeing your government sending tens of billions overseas, while we can't afford homes, and the cost of our groceries (despite inflation cooling) are still so high. Our national debt is now around $10 trillion more than our yearly GDP, and it hasn't shown any signs of stopping in recent times. For the first time last year, annual interest payments on the US national debt exceeded $1 trillion (perhaps National Debts as a whole is a topic that deserves its own thread, I'm sure we'd all learn something new from that). While I'll concur that we're probably not in crisis mode yet, where we need to worry about defaulting on the debt, continued aid to Ukraine is particularly frustrating when 70% of Americans want talks to end the war in Ukraine. This is something I think we've already discussed, but I'm at the point where I want the focus to be on diplomacy to end the war - with compromises from all sides. I'd be less irritated with the aid if the signal and message was that we were simply providing them aid as a stopgap measure while we directed diplomatic resources to reach a compromise with Russia and Ukraine and end the war. That doesn't appear to be the goal though, per the following quote from the linked article:

The Biden administration has publicly rejected the idea of negotiating an end to the war with Russia, with U.S. officials saying that they are prepared to back Ukraine "as long as it takes" to achieve the country's goal of ejecting Russian troops from all of its territory, including Crimea.

I don't know if you'd agree, but I just don't think that goal is realistic. I think we're long past the point of expelling Russian troops from all Ukranian territory being achievable. If it isn't realistically achievable, then this aid seems like money down the drain - a sunk-cost fallacy in action. That is of course, if the publicly stated goals are the true goals, and not, as often happens with war, an opportunity seized upon by bad actors to line their own pockets. Respected investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, yes, the same Seymour Hersh who exposed the My Lai massacre and the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, recently wrote an article on his Substack that contains some information that is pretty damning, including that Ukraine is using US aid to buy diesel from Russia. Unfortunately, you need to start a subscription to read the whole article, but I'll include a quote from what is available without doing that below, with bold emphasis in spots of interest:

What also is unknown is that Zelensky has been buying the fuel from Russia, the country with which it, and Washington, are at war, and the Ukrainian president and many in his entourage have been skimming untold millions from the American dollars earmarked for diesel fuel payments. One estimate by analysts from the Central Intelligence Agency put the embezzled funds at $400 million last year, at least; another expert compared the level of corruption in Kiev as approaching that of the Afghan war, "although there will be no professional audit reports emerging from the Ukraine."

"Zelensky's been buying discount diesel from the Russians," one knowledgeable American intelligence official told me. "And who's paying for the gas and oil? We are. Putin and his oligarchs are making millions" on it.

Many government ministries in Kiev have been literally "competing," I was told, to set up front companies for export contracts for weapons and ammunition with private arms dealers around the world, all of which provide kickbacks. Many of those companies are in Poland and Czechia, but others are thought to exist in the Persian Gulf and Israel. "I wouldn't be surprised to learn that there are others in places like the Cayman Islands and Panama, and there are lots of Americans involved," an American expert on international trade told me.

The issue of corruption was directly raised with Zelensky in a meeting last January in Kiev with CIA Director William Burns. His message to the Ukrainian president, I was told by an intelligence official with direct knowledge of the meeting, was out of a 1950s mob movie. The senior generals and government officials in Kiev were angry at what they saw as Zelensky's greed, so Burns told the Ukrainian president, because "he was taking a larger share of the skim money than was going to the generals."

Burns also presented Zelensky with a list of thirty-five generals and senior officials whose corruption was known to the CIA and others in the American government. Zelensky responded to the American pressure ten days later by publicly dismissing ten of the most ostentatious officials on the list and doing little else. "The ten he got rid of were brazenly bragging about the money they had—driving around Kiev in their new Mercedes," the intelligence official told me.

So what I gather from this, assuming it's all true (and given Seymour Hersh's track record, I'm inclined to think it is), is that our American tax dollars are getting sent to Ukraine, a country we've long known to be politically corrupt, and there's little oversight or at least enforcement on how that money is used. Putin and his goons (who are supposed to be our geopolitical enemies) are making millions off us as Zelensky uses our money to buy diesel from Russia. Zelensky and his generals, for their part, are also embezzling hundreds of millions off the aid we send them (and that's just last year) to personally enrich themselves, as his generals brag about it and drive around Kiev in their shiny new Mercedes. And of course, private weapons contractors, as long as the war keeps going, get to make their money too. As all this goes on, our congressmen and congresswomen cheer and applaud and wave Ukrainian flags in the US House Chamber as they vote to send another $61 billion to Ukraine:



https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1781767781945360480

As Smedley Butler once said: "War is a racket"

Like I said when I posted the chart, it shows percentage statistics. If you just look at it and say "Which bar is biggest?" then it could be misleading, but it doesn't have to be treated skepticism; plenty of people understand the difference between proportional and net figures. Yes, the US sends the biggest chunk of cash, but like in many areas of countries joining together to fund international causes, the fairest principle is some proportional system. Or what? The USA and Malta (pop. = 0.4 million) should pay the same towards, I don't know, cancer research, NATO or whatever ?

That's fair I suppose, and I understand where you're coming from, but it does ignore the debt-to-GDP ratios of the countries involved, which would ignore how fiscally wise it might be for each given country to provide that aid. For example, Sweden and Lithuania both have a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 35% (very healthy fiscal situation) while America has a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 120% (not so healthy fiscal situation).

I don't know who is more surprised at the phrase "can so quickly": me or Zelenskyy

Trust me, compared to the usual seemingly endless bickering between R's and D's to get anything useful done domestically, the aid to Ukraine was done quickly! 

Perhaps we should agree to differ on this one, SGR, because I'm too tired to explore RFKJ's record - but it looks like Trollheart has done some research, and his mention of "Covid-denying" is another red flag against the guy.   

That's fine. To be frank, I haven't really made up my mind about RFK Jr. in totality. As I mentioned to Lexi, I haven't followed him as closely as I have Trump/Biden. He's a very interesting wildcard. Believe me, there's a lot of things I disagree with him on politically. But when I've listened to him speak, I can't help but get the feeling that deep down, he is a good man who genuinely wants what he believes is best for the country. Does that mean he is a good man? Not necessarily. Does that mean he's right about what is best for the country? Probably not, at least not in total. But there is an authenticity I get from him that I get from very few US politicians. That whole ethnically targeted COVID stuff for example, that was presented by many as showcasing RFK Jr's antisemitism - I believe him when he came out and apologized and said he in no way meant what he said in an anti-semitic fashion, and that he shouldn't have said it, because he could see how some might take it to mean something which he didn't mean. Perhaps others get the same feeling of genuineness and authenticity from him and that's why he has as much support as he does, despite less media coverage and his obvious voice issue. Who knows, maybe I'm just easily duped. 

[Psy-Fi]

Trump Doubles Down That RFK Jr. Is 'Most Radical Left Candidate'

[SGR]

Trump Doubles Down That RFK Jr. Is 'Most Radical Left Candidate'

Trump calls him 'radical left', it would be hilarious if Biden came out and called him a 'right wing conspiracy filled nutjob'. 

Depending on who he ends up taking more votes from, someone will probably regret giving him more attention. I could see Biden not addressing him at all and pretending he doesn't exist. That's honestly probably the smart play.

I'm skeptical presidential debates will even happen, but man it would be interesting if RFK Jr was up on the stage with Trump/Biden (I'm confident that won't happen).

[Trollheart]

First off, @SGR , no problem with the gif. I do that, too, though I didn't understand why you and this Steve Harley sorry Harvey were so dumbstruck, and thanks @Lexi Darling  for helping to clear it up for me. Been transferring my journals all last week and today; getting close to having them all up to date, but it's been keeping me from checking out/responding to threads.

I used to post in an admittedly pretty left-wing, liberal forum called - ah damn I forget, but it was one of those places where they post all the fuck Trump stuff. I learned through bitter experience though that they were, or are, in their way, as close-minded and ready to stab you if you stick one toe out of line (as they see it) when I was banned. Yeah, me! Banned! Have you ever met a nicer, less offensive person, not counting Lisna? Yet they banned me. Long story. Anyway (what the hell was the name of that place? I just seem to have gone blank on it. It'll come to me) it was there that I first learned of RFKJ, who was actually taking legal action against them for posting perfectly legitimate pictures of his taking part in a Nazi rally, or rather, for refusing to reveal the source that posted them. They have a back-and-forth with him, but again it was there that I had learned the family had disowned him and accused him of shitting on the proud legacy of the Kennedys.

Okay, I looked it up. Daily KOS, that was it. Here's the story, sent to me in email format way back in 2022, obviously before they banned this dangerous radical from their site!



Nazi-cavorter Robert Kennedy is suing Daily Kos. Here's where things currently stand:
Inbox

Daily Kos <campaigns@dailykos.com> Unsubscribe
Tue, 25 Jan 2022, 15:09
to me

Deryck, at an anti-vax rally over the weekend in Washington, D.C., Robert F. Kennedy Jr. compared the current pandemic safety policies to Nazi Germany and the Holocaust. Except, according to Kennedy, it was easier to escape the Holocaust, saying "Even in Hitler's Germany, you could cross the Alps into Switzerland, you could hide in an attic like Anne Frank did" (ignoring the fact that Anne Frank died in a concentration camp). He followed that up with a tirade about 5G and satellites tracking our every move.

Unlike in Nazi Germany, Kennedy can freely spew his conspiracy theories and exploit one of the greatest human tragedies in history into a microphone in the middle of the nation's capital—it's one of those rights granted to us in the Bill of Rights. Yet, this man is suing Daily Kos to reveal the identity of a user who wrote about Kennedy's participation in an anti-mask rally in Germany that was organized and attended by Nazis. A story that was also reported by many major media outlets.

Daily Kos is now in the second year of defending Kennedy's frivolous lawsuit to protect the privacy of our community and our First Amendment rights. The lawsuit now spans two coasts--in courts in both New York and California—and it is getting costly. But we refuse to back down from Kennedy's bullying.

Unfortunately, Kennedy comes from one of those American dynasty families and has unlimited financial resources. Unlike Kennedy, nearly half of our revenue comes from thousands of grassroots supporters chipping in a few dollars at a time. Help fund our legal efforts against Robert Kennedy Jr. a dangerous, life-threatening conspiracy theorist, by donating $5 to Daily Kos today.